After a quick offseason, the University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Men’s Basketball Tournament is back. This weekly series will analyze the state of the Ateneo Blue Eagles as they look to avenge last season’s finals loss.

COMING OFF a stunning loss to the National University (NU) Bulldogs last November 2, Ateneo erased some doubts as they won three straight games which set themselves up for another potential Final Four appearance. They began the winning streak by toppling archrivals De La Salle University (DLSU) Green Archers before the two-week break, 68-54. They followed that victory up by demolishing the University of Santo Tomas (UST) Growling Tigers, 72-55. In their next contest, they clawed back from a 19-point deficit to steal the victory from the Far Eastern University (FEU) Tamaraws, 71-65.

With the stakes increasing for each match, the Blue Eagles look to put themselves in a favorable position in the standings with two big games this week. On Wednesday, November 23, at 4:30 PM, Ateneo will be put to the test against the University of the East (UE) Red Warriors at the Mall of Asia Arena. They will then take on the defending champions University of the Philippines (UP) Fighting Maroons on Saturday, November 26, at 6:30 PM at the Araneta Coliseum.

1. Final-Four scenarios

Anton: THE BLUE Eagles find themselves in a better position after their loss to the NU Bulldogs just a couple of weeks ago which made them drop to third in the UAAP standings. Although they still sit in the same position as of writing, their chances of moving up the UAAP ladder significantly increased after the Green Archers upset the top-seeded Fighting Maroons last Sunday. DLSU handed UP their second loss of the season, allowing teams like Ateneo and NU to potentially steal the league’s top spot. With the playoffs looming, let us look at the possible landing spots for the Blue and White in the standings before their match against the UE Red Warriors.

Coach Tab Baldwin’s squad enters Wednesday’s game with an 8-3 record, three games up on the current fourth-seeded DLSU and fifth-seeded Adamson who are both with 5-6 records. With three games left for Ateneo, a slot in the Final Four is still not assured since they will need one more win to clinch not only a playoff berth but the third spot at the least. 

In their situation, Ateneo has eyes on more than just a playoff appearance, they would also want an upper hand against the team they will be facing in the semifinals. The Blue and White can achieve this by finishing the eliminations with a better record than either UP (10-2) or NU (9-3), who have a 1.5 and 0.5 game lead respectively over Ateneo. 

As far as schedules are concerned, both NU (v. DLSU & Adamson) and UP (v. UST & Ateneo) will have two games remaining in the eliminations, while Ateneo (v. UE, UP, & Adamson) will have three. 

Ateneo can possibly grab sole possession of first place and the twice-to-beat advantage if they sweep their final three games, and if UP will incur two straight losses and NU gets at least one loss. In the event of a three-way tie for the first seed, the use of quotients will be in play, which as of writing puts UP (+12) on top, with Ateneo (+8) and NU (-30) following suit. If there would be a two-way logjam, there will be a playoff between the two teams to see who will take the higher spot. 

With all of these permutations in play, there is no question that these last two weeks of the eliminations will be crucial for Ateneo and their goal of title redemption.

2. Chris Koon is finding his groove

Vito: IN OUR first edition of Weekly Takeaways this season, we talked about Chris Koon’s struggles in his new role as the primary facilitator off the bench for Ateneo. Since then though, Baldwin has entrusted that job to Gab Gomez and Paul Garcia, relegating Koon back to the wings.

This role change has proven to be beneficial for Koon as he is slowly becoming more comfortable in the Ateneo offense again. Koon thrived in Season 84 as a secondary playmaker and floor spacer for the Blue Eagles, and now that he is back in that role, his performances have been significantly more impactful. The Fil-Am player had his best game of the season against a tough La Salle team with 11 points off three triples. He then followed it up with a balanced nine points, four rebounds, and three assists against UST. 

Koon has not completely been stripped of opportunities at the guard spot though, especially with the absence of Gab Gomez in the past two games. When he is asked to bring down the ball, there’s a noticeable change in his approach now compared to the first round. Earlier on in the season, he would often be slow and hesitant when defended full court, which often leaves him vulnerable to a second defender doubling up from behind and forcing a turnover. In the past few games though, it seems he has emphasized bringing the ball up quicker and pushing the pace, not giving the defense enough time to set up a trap for him.

Interestingly, Koon has also at times been tasked to defend the team’s opposing lead guards. With Ange Kouame on the bench at the start of the fourth quarter against FEU, Koon had crucial minutes defending LJ Gonzales out on the perimeter. While many would expect these kinds of matchups to be a mismatch in favor of Gonzales, Koon can be fast enough on his feet to prevent getting blown past by the many quick-twitch UAAP guards too often. His length and height even give him the advantage in the matchup at times as it helps crowd the passing lanes and limits the vision of the opponent team’s primary creator. 

Koon is slowly regaining his groove in the Ateneo system once more, and if he can continue his much-improved play, he will aptly be one of the key pieces for Ateneo down the stretch.

3. A tale of two halves

Vito: OVER THE years spanning Head Coach Baldwin’s tenure, the Blue Eagles have garnered a reputation as a “third quarter team.” No matter how well or how poorly they perform in the first half, Ateneo always inevitably comes out of halftime with a vengeance and outscores the opposing team. Whether it be through key adjustments, lineup changes, or even just a good screaming session from Coach Baldwin to get them locked in, the Blue Eagles always find a way to dominate the third quarter.

That trend has pretty much stayed true for the entirety of Season 85. Ateneo has outscored opponents in nine of the 11 third quarters they have played this season by an average margin of nine points. Only the Fighting Maroons and the Green Archers have been able to best the Blue and White in the third frame. 

On the flip side though, much of the first halves played by Ateneo has been an entirely different story. The team has entered halftime with the lead only five times in 11 games, which means that their third quarter outbursts are more often used to catch up to a deficit rather than pad their lead.

While these third quarters have given much-needed boosts to the Ateneo side, becoming fully reliant on these runs makes for a poor winning strategy, and Coach Baldwin knows it. When asked about their success in these periods, Baldwin said, “Every quarter should be our third quarter. I do not know why it is, but it should not be.”

Two of the top teams of Season 85 have proven that they can survive and even outplay Ateneo in these third quarter performances. For the Blue Eagles to find a sustainable winning strategy against teams like UP, DLSU, and NU, they would need to muster up some form of consistency throughout all four quarters of the game.

This week’s games:

Wednesday, November 23, 4:30 PM vs University of the East Red Warriors at the Mall of Asia Arena

Saturday, November 26, 6:30 PM vs University of the Philippines Fighting Maroons at the Araneta Coliseum.