In line with the return of the University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Men’s Basketball Tournament, this weekly series will analyze the state of the Ateneo Blue Eagles in their quest for the four-peat.
Recap of the elimination round matchups (March 26 and May 1)
The elimination round was bookended by matchups between the University of the Philippines (UP) Fighting Maroons and the Ateneo Blue Eagles, with Ateneo securing a wire-to-wire victory in the first game and UP pulling off a stunning upset in the second meeting to snap Ateneo’s 39-game winning streak.
In the first matchup on March 26, the Blue Eagles threatened to pull away early with a 15-point lead midway through the opening quarter, but the Fighting Maroons cut the lead to eight heading into the second quarter. Ateneo then went on a 10-4 run late in the second frame to take a 13-point advantage before heading into the dugouts with a 46-35 lead. After halftime, UP cut the lead to just five, only for Ateneo to respond with a 15-4 surge to extend their lead to 18. The Blue Eagles maintained their lead through most of the final quarter to end the game with a final score of 90-81 in their favor.
The Fighting Maroons took their turn in opening the second game on May 1 with a double-digit advantage as their outside shooting torched Ateneo’s defense and closed the opening period with a 14-point lead. UP’s lead then ballooned to 18 early in the second quarter until Ateneo’s resilient 23-10 run trimmed UP’s lead down to five. The Blue Eagles took their first lead at 53-52 early in the third before UP immediately countered with a 9-0 spurt. Ateneo then responded with a 13-5 run of their own to knot the game at 66-all before UP ended the third frame with four points to enter the final period up by three. Both teams went back-and-forth in the final quarter, with neither team taking more than a two-possession lead.
UP’s James Spencer knocked down a go-ahead triple in the final minute, but Ateneo’s Dave Ildefonso responded with a putback to restore Ateneo’s lead. Ricci Rivero would ultimately have the last word for UP, making game-winning free throws to deny Ateneo the 14-0 elimination round sweep.
Finals schedule (Best-of-three format):
Game 1: Sunday, May 8, 4:00 PM, vs University of the Philippines at the Mall of Asia Arena, Pasay City
Game 2: Wednesday, May 11, 6:00 PM, vs University of the Philippines at the Mall of Asia Arena, Pasay City
Game 3 (If necessary): Friday, May 13, 6:00 PM, vs University of the Philippines at the Mall of Asia Arena, Pasay City
- Starting out strong
Neal: IN BOTH meetings this season, the team that jumped out to an early lead went on to maintain control and win the game with Ateneo taking a 20-5 lead in the first matchup’s opening quarter and UP leading by 18 early in the second game. During the first outing, the Blue Eagles used a steady dose of outside shots coupled with a stifling full-court press to build their early advantage. Meanwhile, in the second tilt, UP shredded Ateneo’s 2-3 zone by utilizing perimeter shooting to open an early 32-14 lead.
While both teams have shown the ability to come out swinging, they have also shown in the two previous outings that they are both capable of making comebacks. For instance, UP trimmed Ateneo’s lead to single digits multiple times in the first game, while the Blue Eagles also rallied in the second matchup to go neck-and-neck with UP heading into the game’s waning moments.
Regardless, both teams carried the momentum from their respective strong openings. Ateneo maintained their lead in the first game by hitting timely three-pointers to stop scoring runs by the Fighting Maroons, while UP held on to their lead for most of the game by getting defensive stops and attacking in transition.
When tip-off time comes, watch out for Ateneo’s defense—particularly whether they open with the full-court press that they successfully implemented in the first matchup or the 2-3 zone utilized in the second meeting. Moreover, expect the team playing with the lead to maintain their composure when their opponent makes a comeback.
In the case of the Blue Eagles, look out for their perimeter players—such as SJ Belangel, BJ Andrade, and Dave Ildefonso—who can drain outside shots to halt a potential run by UP. If the Fighting Maroons are facing an Ateneo surge, anticipate that they will utilize their size and versatility on defense and turn defensive stands into fastbreak opportunities.
- Veterans’ growth
Anton: Coach Tab welcomed eight players back into the fold from his 3-peat squad, with an emphasis on retaining continuity and familiarity with his system. Veterans Raffy Verano, Gian Mamuyac, Tyler Tio, and BJ Andrade have thrived the most with this familiar look, having career-years this season en route to their 13-1 record during the elimination round.
The brightest spot from the group evidently did not see action for the Blue Eagles during the UAAP’s 82nd season—Raffy Verano. The graduating senior still made his mark in his final season for the Blue and White, leading the non-Gilas representatives of Ateneo in scoring with 7.93 points per game while hauling in 5.14 boards.
Another surprise veteran that is playing his last year for the #1 team in the league is Team Captain Gian Mamuyac. Best known for his length and defensive IQ to contain the opposing team’s best player, Mamuyac has grown significantly on the offensive end this season, specifically from rainbow country. In 15 elimination games, the three-time champion shot a respectable 39% from distance—good for fourth best in the league. Most notably, he played two of his best games against bitter-rivals the De La Salle University (DLSU) Green Archers, racking up 6 steals in the first meeting and 15 points in the second meeting.
Not to be outdone are Tyler Tio and BJ Andrade, who have been lights out from beyond the arc this season, hitting 32% and 37% respectively; both ranking in the league’s top 10.
If the veterans of the team continue to excel against the Fighting Maroons in the Finals, it will be mighty difficult for UP to stop this freight train. This is especially true when you realize superstars SJ Belangel and Dave Ildefonso are waiting in the wings and Most Valuable Player (MVP) candidate Ange Kouame is lurking in the paint.
- The Ange Kouame Factor
Ra: WHILE ATENEO has benefited from their next-man-up mentality this season with breakout games from their starters up to their second unit, one Blue Eagle who has anchored the team consistently is Ange Kouame. Despite playing in a 16-deep rotation for Tab Baldwin, Kouame is this season’s UAAP MVP frontrunner, averaging an all-around 12.9 points, 11 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.1 blocks, and 1 steal in just 26 minutes per game.
The Filipino-Ivorian center is eighth in scoring, third in rebounding, and first in blocks in the league after the elimination round. Kouame’s overall impact for Ateneo is also seen in his impressive plus-minus, a whopping cumulative +222 throughout the eliminations which leads the league by a wide margin. For comparison, the next Blue Eagle in the plus-minus department is Dave Ildefonso with +176. Talk about impact.
Against UP in both elimination round matchups, Kouame posted an average of 16 points, 15 boards, two steals, and two blocks. In Ateneo’s heartbreaking 83-84 defeat in their second game against the Fighting Maroons, the Gilas naturalized center posted an all around statline of 21 markers, 17 rebounds, four assists, three steals, and three blocks. The encounter also had the Blue and White trailing by double digits for most of the game, but Kouame was the lone Blue Eagle who managed to get a double-digit positive plus-minus of 12.
Through Kouame’s leviathan of a season so far, Ateneo’s four-peat may just be two games away.
Predictions
Neal: Heading into the last game of the elimination round in which Ateneo lost to UP, I was expecting the Blue Eagles to win by a wide margin based on how the two teams performed in the season opener. Furthermore, I was expecting the Fighting Maroons to surrender the win to Ateneo because of their inconsistent performances throughout the season, most notably their loss to Adamson in the second round. UP’s win over Ateneo showed me that they have the firepower and size to go toe-to-toe against the three-time defending champions. However, UP’s CJ Cansino and Terrence Fortea are down with injuries, which may leave the Fighting Maroons short-handed if they want to replicate their performance on May 1. When I think about how losing against UP provides motivation for the Blue Eagles, I’m fairly certain that the series will end in a clean 2-0 sweep for Ateneo’s fourth straight title.
Anton: With CJ Cansino’s status still in the air, there are question marks on whether UP has what it takes to repeat what they did when they snapped Ateneo’s 39-game win streak. Despite this absence, however, other guards have stepped up in his place. Harold Alarcon had the game of his life in their comeback win against DLSU, dropping 14 points to send the Maroons to the Finals for the second time in three seasons. Gerry Abadiano was a steady force in the past few games as well, hitting big time shots in both comeback attempts for their two Final Four matches. Maymay Cagulangan’s pesky defense on opposing guards has been a treat to watch all season. All this while opening up the offense with his playmaking ability, contributing in other ways after hitting only 13% from deep during the elimination round.
Coach Goldwin Monteverde’s frontline is also something to watch out for in the Battle of Katipunan. Carl Tamayo looked dominant as he took over in Friday night’s victory against the Green Archers, recording a 19-10 double-double with four steals, drawing comparisons to greats like Ranidel De Ocampo very early in his collegiate career. But the biggest thing to consider for Ateneo—and UP for that matter—is what version of Malick Diouf we will see in the Finals. Though he lacked consistency throughout the season, the 6’11” big man gave the defending champions fits in their last meeting, with an 18-16 points-rebounds statline for the UP victory.
Is this version of the Fighting Maroons ready to dethrone and spoil a possible four-peat for Ateneo, or will the American-Kiwi tactician’s adjustments be enough to keep UP in check? My mind says Ateneo easily takes care of business and sweeps the Finals in two games. My gut, however, says this never-say-die UP squad makes this a series but ultimately succumbs in a Game 3 rubber match, giving Ateneo their second four-peat in 10 years.
Ra: If there’s one thing that UP proved after their Final Four matchup, it is that no lead is safe against them. In their first Final Four game against DLSU, the Fighting Maroons almost eked-out a win after a 25-17 fourth quarter outing. In their deciding game two, UP secured their finals berth with a 22-4 run to end the game, outsourcing the Green Archers, 27-10, in the final frame.
This could spell trouble for Ateneo. While Ateneo has been known this season for its third quarter surges, the Blue Eagles’ offense has taken bumps in the fourth quarter during numerous games this season. Most notably, the Blue Eagles’ second game against the National University Bulldogs spelled the worst fourth quarter outing for the team where they were outscored 11-26. In Ateneo’s game against the Bulldogs, the Blue Eagles only converted two field-goals on a lackluster 15.4% shooting clip in the final canto. Similarly, Ateneo’s first round matchup against finals foe UP saw the Blue and White get outscored 19-27 in the fourth period.
In all games this season except for their round two matchup against UP, Ateneo entered the fourth quarter with a comfortable lead. To win the Finals, Ateneo should be more consistent in closing out their games. Should the Blue Eagles make the necessary adjustments and capitalize on their third quarter momentum until the final buzzer, I see them winning this finals matchup against UP in two games, giving Ateneo its historic fourth-straight championship.
