In line with the ongoing University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Season 81 Men’s Basketball Tournament, this weekly series will analyze the state of the Ateneo Blue Eagles in their quest to successfully defend the crown.

Recap of the week (November 25):

Ateneo-FEU: 17-9, 38-24, 59-36, 80-61

Facing the Far Eastern University (FEU) Tamaraws for the fourth consecutive year in the semi-finals, the Ateneo Blue Eagles were in for a fight. The Tamaraws, who had just eliminated the De La Salle (DLSU) Green Archers four days prior via Arvin Tolentino’s go-ahead triple, were a streaking team with nothing to lose and everything to gain coming into game 1.

However, with the Blue Eagles heeding Coach Tab Baldwin’s system of consistency, the Katipunan-based squad poured in a mighty effort from start to finish, cruising their way to an easy 80-61 victory to advance to their third consecutive UAAP finals.

Upcoming games:

December 1, Saturday, 3:30 PM vs. University of the Philippines (UP) Fighting Maroons at the Mall of Asia Arena in Pasay City.

December 5, Wednesday, 3:30 PM vs. UP Fighting Maroons at the Araneta Coliseum in Cubao, Quezon City.

IF NECESSARY: December 8, Saturday, 3:30 PM vs. UP Fighting Maroons at the Mall of Asia Arena in Pasay City.

Previous Encounters:

1. September 12, 2018: “An apt foreshadowing”

This mid-week matchup between the Fighting Maroons and the Blue Eagles foreshadowed the season that lay ahead for both teams. The UAAP fans were treated to a contest that featured some of the league’s best, with eventual Season 81 Most Valuable Player (MVP) Bright Akhuetie and Ange Kouame facing off for the first time in the UAAP.

Akhuetie, who we have come to label as the “Nigerian Nikola Jokic,” was a force in this game—showing off his control and esteemed vision in the low post by putting up eight points, 11 rebounds, and a whopping nine assists at the center position in about 34 minutes of action on the court. Kouame, meanwhile, emerged from his disappointing UAAP debut against the Adamson University (AdU) Soaring Falcons with 14 points and nine rebounds.

Season 80 Rookie of the Year Juan Gomez de Liano of UP put up an impressive 29 points in what was only the beginning of his evolution from a talented first-year prospect to a bona fide star and frontman. Additionally, we also saw the bounce-back game of a blue-chip player in Thirdy Ravena, who recovered from a subpar showing against AdU with a 17 point, 11 rebound double-double.

In terms of team play, the Blue Eagles moved the ball well by putting up 16 team assists on the stat sheet—doubling what they had put up against the Soaring Falcons in the previous game. The Fighting Maroons on the other hand, who as of current, lead the league in team assists with about 19.4 assists per game (APG), put up 20 productive passes in this particular matchup. The Blue and White were also unconscious from the charity stripe, as they hit a staggering 26 of 31 (84%) attempts, whereas the Fighting Maroons hit just 4 shots from 7 (57%) attempts.

Despite the Fighting Maroons’ resilient efforts, UP ultimately came up short as the Blue and White went on to an 87-79 victory in a very entertaining first round Battle of Katipunan

2. October 14, 2018: “The Next Man Up”

Much like their first round encounter with the Fighting Maroons, the Blue and White entered this matchup fresh off a defeat, with the Far Eastern University (FEU) Tamaraws besting the Blue and White, 63-60, in the previous match. To add to the story, starting point guard Matt Nieto was ruled out of the game due to a finger injury sustained against the Tamaraws—leaving the Blue Eagles to hand former Xavier School standout Tyler Tio his first UAAP career start.

Suffice it to say, things went well for the Blue and White as they clamped down on the Maroons on defense while raining in shots from downtown. Juan Gomez de Liano, who had dropped 29 points on the Blue and White last time around, had been held to just 5 points on 2/10 (20%) shooting despite playing a near 29 minutes of action. The Blue Eagles were lethal from beyond the arc—pouring in an 8/20 (40%) shooting clip from deep to tie their previous season high in terms of three-point percentage (3PT%) against DLSU.

Ravena, meanwhile, was immense as he racked up 21 points, 11 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks in yet another double-double for the Blue Eagles stalwart. On the other side of the court, Akhuetie was extremely efficient for the Fighting Maroons as he put in 20 points and eight rebounds on an 8/10 (80%) shooting clip from the field.

Despite all of this, the headlines were on Tio as he brilliantly filled Matt Nieto’s void with a 12-point, 5-assist performance to go with an empty turnovers tally in about 27 minutes of play. Speaking on Nieto’s absence, Tio commended the team’s next man up philosophy. “When Matt went down, obviously we were hurt because he’s one of our better players; he’s one of our leaders,” he said. “I’d like to give props also to Jolo [Mendoza], Adrian [Wong], and SJ [Belangel]—we all just wanted to fill the void that Matt left.”

In the end, the Blue Eagles proved to be too much for the Fighting Maroons as they went on to a monster 83-66 victory over the Maroons.

Previewing the Finals:

1. Battle of the Buckets

With a revamped offensive system that now involves more passing and less isolations, Coach Bo Perasol’s squad has quickly jumped to the top of the league in offensive efficiency.

In 14 elimination round games, the Fighting Maroons have scored a league-high 80.3 points per game (PPG) on a tourney-leading 45.0% shooting, with an offensive rating of 101.16 points per 100 possessions (second in the league)

A contributor to this is UP’s increased focus on scoring in the paint. The Maroon and White have been dominant in the low post, scoring 44.4 inside points per game, 10 points more than the second best team in Ateneo (34.1 PPG).

Sharing the ball has also been one of Fighting Maroons’ biggest strengths this season. Boasting four of the top ten passers in the league, namely, Juan Gomez de Liano (first with 5.5 APG), Jun Manzo (third with 4.0 APG), Paul Desiderio (fifth with 3.1 APG), and Akhuetie (ninth with 2.8 APG), UP has been terrorizing opposing teams with their league-leading 19.9 APG. Their ability to find cutters and to dish out drop passes keep the opposing defenses on their toes, minimizing the effectiveness of the help defense.

The Blue Eagles, meanwhile, remain one of the league’s most potent offensive forces. They are the league leaders in offensive rating, accumulating 102.48 per 100 possessions, and are second in points scored with 78.8 PPG on 39.8% shooting (third in the UAAP).

With a lot of off-ball screens, cuts, curls, and general movement that generate multiple options for open looks, the Blue Eagles’ offense is very difficult to stop. Prevent the three from one of the shooters and you give up an open layup from a cutting big. Stop a strong drive down the middle and you’re fried by a wide open triple. Such is the dilemma of every opposing team when facing Ateneo.

With Kouame’s emergence as a reliable post presence complementing Ateneo’s array of perimeter scorers, Ateneo has a plethora of options on the offensive end. The Ivorian’s team-high 14.4 PPG coupled with the slashing ability of the ever-reliable Ravena (12.1 PPG) will be the main catalysts that will take the Blue Eagles up a notch, elevating their offense from great to near unstoppable.

2. Speed vs smarts

Have you ever watched those Animal Planet shows where a cheetah is filmed chasing a helpless deer running for its dear life? Or the ones where a snake is methodically awaiting its prey, ready to pounce at a moment’s notice? If you noticed the difference between these two predators’ hunting strategy, then you probably already know how important pace is to both of these teams.

UP plays the fastest pace in the league at 79.37 possessions per game. They break down their opponents by quickly running up the court, attacking on players who are slow to get back on defense. They attack relentlessly whether in transition or off the inbound. If you jog back on defense, you’ll realize that you’re out of position to stop the drive or to provide help defense, just like those helpless deer waiting to be preyed upon.

Meanwhile, Ateneo plays the third slowest pace in the UAAP at 76.88 possessions per game. Possessing a deadly array of half court sets, Ateneo plans and coordinates every sequence. You won’t know you’re beaten until you slam into a screen, or you’re left in the dust by a backdoor cut, and only then do you realize you’re the snake’s next meal.

Because of the fewer possessions the Blue Eagles get every game, they’d have to squeeze in more precision into their offensive sets. Every cut, every screen, every pass must be exact and deliberate. Like a snake, every decision must be quick and decisive; and that’s what makes Ateneo so special.

3. Chinks in the Fighting Maroons’ armor

Despite all of their brilliance on the offensive end of the court, UP remains one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They give up the sixth-most points per game with 77.5 on 41.0% shooting, also sixth in the UAAP. They have an abysmal defensive rating of 97.65 that ranks them as the third-worst in the league.

A lot of it comes back to effort. The Fighting Maroons’ biggest defensive deficiency is transition defense. They give up 10.6 fastbreak points per game (sixth in the league). It’s ironic that they’re biggest trump card on offense is also their biggest bane on the defensive end.

Aside from transition defense, the Maroon and White also struggle to collect rebounds. They are tied for sixth with only 43.9 rebounds per game (RPG). As coaches say, the defensive possession does not end until you grab the rebound, and despite Akhuetie’s league-leading 14.6 RPG, UP continues to struggle in that aspect. Again, it boils down to effort in hustling for those boards that is causing a thorn on the Fighting Maroons’ side.

However, the most pressing concern for UP is not their defense, which can still be compensated through added effort, but it’s their awful free throw shooting. It’s amazing how the Fighting Maroons can still have a top two offense despite connecting on only 9.6 free throws per game at a rate of 60.4% (both last in the league), but it’ll be one of those glaring eyesores in the Finals if the Maroon and White pile up brick after brick from the foul line only to squander easy points.

4. Gameplan against UP

One of the most important aspects of this finals series will be the pace and tempo of the game. Whoever controls it will have a much easier time imposing their will on their opponents.

For Ateneo, stopping UP’s transition opportunities and taking care of the ball is a must to slow down the game. As evidenced by their games against AdU, UE, and FEU, the Blue Eagles have a tendency to get careless with the ball, stringing up three to four straight turnovers that lead to multiple easy opportunities and huge runs by the opponents.

Another key for the Blue Eagles is forcing UP to create points out of isolation. Bad habits tend to stay sometimes, and tightening the passing lanes could force the Fighting Maroons’ isolation habits to resurface. This showed up in game 2 of the semi-finals against the Soaring Falcons where a lot of UP’s points were created out of a Juan Gomez de Liano isolation. When Gomez de Liano cooled off, AdU was able to come back from 12 points down in the second half to force overtime.

If Ateneo can lull UP to use up a chunk of their shot clock, they’ll have no choice but to resort to isolation, making their offense more predictable and easier to stop, especially with Ateneo’s defensive specialists in Gian Mamuyac and Anton Asistio.

The final aspect the Blue Eagles need to accomplish is containing the Fighting Maroons’ best shot creators, Juan Gomez de Liano and Desiderio. A lot of UP’s offensive actions begin with a Juan Gomez de Liano pick and roll or a Desiderio post-up, so playing honest defense and maintaining discipline in staying in front of them will be important to prevent any mismatches or defensive lapses to occur.

The Fighting Maroons are inspired and confident. Surviving three crucial games have hardened and prepared them mentally for this Finals series. The Blue Eagles will have to stick to their strengths, staying methodical and disciplined in every execution.

It’s #OneBigFight vs. #AtinTo. Who will reign as the kings of Katipunan?