In line with the ongoing University Athletics Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Men’s Basketball tournament, this weekly series will analyze the state of the Ateneo Blue Eagles in their quest to reclaim the crown.

Recap of the Week (September 25 to October 4):

The Ateneo Blue Eagles pushed their undefeated start to six wins after a couple of double-digit victories over the University of Santo Tomas (UST) Growling Tigers and the National University (NU) Bulldogs. The pesky Growling Tigers battled back to within one point in the fourth quarter, after trailing by as many as 22 points. However, Matt Nieto and Co. would hold off UST late in the game to win, 94-84. The NU Bulldogs stayed close for three quarters, but strong performances from Chibueze Ikeh and Vince Tolentino helped the Blue Eagles pull away in the fourth frame in a 96-83 victory. With just one game left in the first round, the Blue Eagles sit alone at the top of the standings at 6-0.

This Week’s Games:

October 8, Sunday, 4:00 PM vs De La Salle University (DLSU) Green Archers

1. Sunday’s Battle with La Salle looms over Ateneo’s undefeated run

The Ateneo Blue Eagles have outclassed the rest of the UAAP through six games. Not only are they undefeated, but they have also beaten each of their opponents by double-digits for an average margin of victory of 15.7 points per game.

In their second year under Head Coach Tab Baldwin, Ateneo has showcased the tools of a title favorite. Their team-oriented offense and disciplined defense have them ranked first in scoring and second in points allowed (both per 100 possessions). Within the actual games, Ateneo has also shown the unique ability to flip a proverbial switch to pull away from opponents, which they were able to do against the University of the East (UE), NU, and UST.

On the other hand, the Blue Eagles’ opponents on Sunday have had a rollercoaster of a first round. While the Green Archers sport a healthy 5-1 record, their patented Mayhem defense (7th in points allowed per 100 possessions) has been a cause for concern so far this season. Their only loss came after they gave up 16 triples to University of the Philippines (UP), tied for the most three-pointers made in a UAAP game.  Their struggles on the defensive end were once again highlighted Wednesday when UE’s Alvin Pasaol dropped a UAAP record 49 points on the Green Archer defense. Moreover, La Salle has also had a few close calls against the likes of NU and Adamson, the latter of which Mbala described as a “bad win.”

Yet, despite their seemingly up and down first round, La Salle is still just a win away from the first seed. At this point, they are arguably still the clear favorite to win it all.

“They’re the favorites. They lost one game, but let’s face it, they’re the heavy favorites this UAAP [season],” Ateneo’s Assistant Coach Sandy Arespacochaga said of DLSU in last Saturday’s postgame press conference.

Amidst their defensive struggles, La Salle’s offense has been an efficient and high-octane machine that has propelled them to a near spotless record. The Green Archers trot out the league’s fastest (1st in pace) and most potent offense, averaging a whopping 100.5 points per game. Their efficiency has slightly edged out Ateneo’s so far; DLSU ranks first in field goal percentage (45.8%) with Ateneo close behind at second (45%). The two rivals are tied for first in three-point percentage (31.6%).

However, DLSU’s 6-foot-9 import Ben Mbala remains the biggest reason why it is difficult for most people to dismiss La Salle as the favorite for the crown. Despite missing the team’s first two games to play for the Cameroon national team, Mbala is boasts a monstrous stat line of 33.5 points, 11.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks with an efficient 62-35-84 shooting split (FG%-3PT%-FT%). His massive frame has helped him maintain his effective inside scoring, but his newfound three-point shot has added a new dimension to his game for opposing defenses to worry about this season.

A month of UAAP Season 80 action has seen these two teams pave different paths to this initial meeting. While this elimination round game may be meaningless in the grand scheme of things, the success of both squads has set the scene this Season 79 Finals rematch to undoubtedly be the defining moment of the first round. Are the Ateneo Blue Eagles ready to unseat DLSU as favorites to win the championship, or have the De La Salle Green Archers merely been saving their best punch for their archrivals? Sunday’s game will hopefully provide us with some answers.

2. Matt Nieto’s emergence as the Blue Eagles’ top marksman

UAAP Season 78 was memorable for the Blue Eagles, with the long-awaited debuts of Jerie Pingoy and Hubert Cani being two of the reasons why. The season also marked Matt Nieto’s inaugural season, though his familiarity in the Ateneo basketball scene made his arrival a lot less publicized. Despite the contrasting levels of hype, it was Nieto who emerged at the top of the point guard ladder over the two the highly-touted recruits, as he secured a place in the starting lineup just three games into the season.

Matt Nieto finds himself in a similar situation two years later. After Adrian Wong’s knee injury ruled him out for Season 80, Nieto was shoehorned back into the starting lineup. However, his experience as the Blue Eagles’ leading guard did not make his starting spot an assurance. The looming presence of Tyler Tio and Jolo Mendoza—another hyped pair of scoring guards—had many expecting Nieto to take a back seat later in the season.

At this point of the season, nobody is doubting his place in the starting five anymore. The former Blue Eaglet has not only emerged as one of the top guards for the Blue Eagles, but in the whole UAAP. Nieto has been putting up huge numbers in the past two contests, highlighted by his 22-point outburst (including a 4/6 clip from deep) that silenced the win-hungry Growling Tigers.

His stat line this season of 11 points, 2 assists and 2.8 rebounds is already impressive on its own accord, but what has set Nieto apart from other starting point guards is his incredible efficiency. He is currently shooting 41.2% from the field, and has made a staggering 44% of his attempts from deep—good for second in the UAAP behind only Green Archer Jollo Go.

Nieto’s potency from beyond the arc is a welcome development for the Blue and White. To put his hot shooting in context: His total of five made triples in the entire of Season 79 equal is to the number of threes he had made in the past two games alone.

“I just improved since last season it [three-point shooting] was my weakness,” Nieto explained after the UST match. “I just really practiced hard during the summer break. I’m thankful for my coaches and my teammates for giving [me] the confidence”

One might suggest that Nieto’s sudden spike in threes is a result of teams simply leaving him open, daring him to shoot. The stats suggest otherwise. Ninety percent of his 51 shot attempts this season have been defended, and he has hit 37% of these contested shots. This indicates that a majority of his three-point looks were under defensive pressure, dampening the possibility that his recent surge from distance is a fluke.

His newfound range, combined with his relentless perimeter defense, has made Nieto one of the premier two-way threats this season. Nieto may not have the flashiest game compared to other guards, but his recent play is going to make it hard for anyone to replace him in the starting lineup.

3. Can the Blue Eagles keep up with fast teams?

Ateneo averages 82.4 possessions per game, last in the UAAP. For a struggling team, this is usually a point of concern, but the Blue Eagles’ slow pace is a result of Coach Tab Baldwin’s well-orchestrated half-court offense; the team makes the most of each possession and routinely crashes the offensive boards. The Blue Eagles also sport the lowest turnover average in the UAAP, but only force a 17.3 turnovers from their opponents, the second lowest mark in the league.  

The past two contests have been an interesting barometer on how Ateneo handles fast-paced teams as UST and NU have the second and third highest marks in pace, respectively. In both games, Ateneo has struggled at times to adjust to both teams’ quick styles of play, especially in the first quarter. The Growling Tigers and Bulldogs both pushed the pace out of the gate, and jumped to 8-2 leads to start each of their games.

The Blue Eagles eventually regained control on both occasions at the endgame, which is a good sign. The ultimate test will come tomorrow against La Salle, the fastest team in the UAAP. The clash of styles is one of the more interesting subplots in the battle between the first and second-ranked teams, and ultimately, the winner may simply be the team that can dictate the pace of the game.