After an eventful offseason, the University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Men’s Basketball Tournament is back. This weekly series will analyze the state of the Ateneo Blue Eagles as they continue their title defense with a chance to win a fifth championship in six seasons.

DESPITE FALLING into a historic three-game losing streak to start the second round of Season 86, the Ateneo Blue Eagles refused to disappear into the night in their quest for a back-to-back. In their five recent contests to end the eliminations, the Blue and White went 4-1 to snatch the final postseason ticket—only falling to Round 2’s undefeated De La Salle University Green Archers by three points.

In virtue of Ateneo’s 22-point playoff blowout of the Adamson Soaring Falcons, a first versus fourth-seeded Final Four standoff is now set between the University of the Philippines (UP) Fighting Maroons and the Blue Eagles. This will be the third consecutive postseason matchup between the two Katipunan-based factions following two previous all-time great championship series.

Ateneo Blue Eagles semifinals schedule:

Game 1: Saturday, November 25, 2:00 PM, vs. University of the Philippines Fighting Maroons at the Araneta Coliseum 

Game 2 *if necessary*: TBD,  vs. University of the Philippines Fighting Maroons

Faring up against a star-studded backcourt 

There are numerous narratives in this semifinal clash to take into consideration—from yet another battle of the league’s cream of the crop coaches to both squads’ youthful yet immensely gifted rosters squaring off. However, I have my sights mainly directed on the intriguing guard play we are going to witness in this skirmish. 

In Ateneo’s stunning upset win over their cross-avenue rivals in the first round of Season 86, Blue Eagles head coach Tab Baldwin highlighted the unprecedented talent brimming in UP’s guard unit. The decorated tactician gave high praise, saying that the Fighting Maroons’ current backcourt committee is the best set of guards he has seen in his entire stint in the UAAP. 

Thanks to big-time playmakers such as CJ Cansino, Harold Alarcon, and JD Cagulangan, the Diliman-based team will roll into the semifinals with an 11-2 record while dominating a plethora of statistical categories. In per-game numbers, UP’s offense as boosted by their guard triumvirate ranks first in fastbreak points, second in points and assists, and third in perimeter points. Defensively, the former champions top the league in steals per game and are second-best in three-point field goal percentage allowed and steals allowed—indicative of their backcourt’s proficient ability in ball handling and guarding the perimeter.

Looking at an individual standpoint, Cansino placed sixth in points (12.5 PPG), fifth in three-pointers made (2.1 3PG), and fifth in three-point percentage (37% 3PT) in the entire UAAP. His running mate Cagulangan also left a mark of his own—ranking fourth in assists (4.7 APG) and fifth in steals (1.7 SPG) this season. Also attached to the profile of these UP guards is the “clutch gene” intangible, something that Ateneo fans are all too familiar with. Inspecting how the Blue Eagles have lately been inconsistent during critical late-game moments, they have to ensure that they will give no space for these shot-creators, especially from behind the arc. 

In the sole Ateneo-UP matchup Cansino and Cagulangan were active for, Ateneo struggled to contain Cansino, as he erupted for 22 points on 10/17 shooting. However, the Blue Eagles kept Cagulangan in check—only allowing him to tally 5 points on a measly 2/11 clip. Meanwhile, in two games played against the Blue Eagles, Alarcon was held to an average of 7.5 points on 27% shooting. 

Ateneo’s guards such as Sean Quitevis, Jared Brown, and Ian Espinosa have shown their capabilities on the defensive end throughout the season, combining for an average of 3.3 steals per game. Beyond what is seen in the stat sheet, the aforementioned trio has exhibited the willingness to apply constant on-ball pressure, remain unfettered by hard-hitting screens, and play through switches.

If the defending champions have intentions of extending and winning the series, Ateneo’s backcourt corps must stop at nothing to hamper the Fighting Maroons’ heavy hitters from getting into rhythm. If the basket widens for shooters such as Cansino, Alarcon, and Cagulangan to open up space for the rest of UP’s offense, Ateneo’s chances will undoubtedly take a heavy dip. Consequently, the Blue Eagles at all costs have to avoid their turnover-prone habits that resurface in intervals, as the Fighting Maroons pride themselves on punishing teams plagued with such lapses.

Prediction

In a season predicated by growth and development, the Blue Eagles have finally strung together a display of high-caliber basketball, with many names delivering on expectations in recent games with playoff-like atmospheres. I see Ateneo as piloted by the ever-effective Tab Baldwin system sticking to this ideal brand of hoops and catching the dominant UP off guard in Game 1. In what would set up to be a series-defining Game 2, my expectations are optimistically set on the Blue Eagles’ season-long “live by the three” philosophy to reap grand rewards. The stage is set for the young Ateneo roster to take this series in two games and send shockwaves across the UAAP.