After an eventful offseason, the University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Men’s Basketball Tournament is back. This season preview will analyze the current state of the Ateneo Blue Eagles as they look ahead to their Season 86 title defense and a chance to win a fifth championship in the last six seasons.
IN THE second week of the UAAP Season 86, the Ateneo Blue Eagles finished with an underwhelming 1-1 tally. On their Wednesday matchup, the Blue and White came away with a 76-69 victory over the University of the East (UE) Red Warriors.
However, it was a whole different story in their bout against the Far Eastern University (FEU) Tamaraws, in which the young Blue Eagle side crumbled in overtime, 61-66. This was the Blue Eagles’ first loss to the Tamaraws since Season 81, a game in which they also fell to the Morayta-based crew in the first round, 60-63.
At the conclusion of the first five games, Ateneo currently sits in fifth place alongside UE, both tallying a 2-3 win-loss slate. The Katipunan-based squad will be looking to improve their standing as the opening round comes to a close.
- An overreliance on the STAR-ters
Gershon: Here’s an interesting fact for all the stat aficionados: Throughout their first five games, Ateneo’s starting five have outscored their counterparts by an average of almost ten points per game. This positive outcome derives from conquering the starters’ scoring battle for four of their five contests and locking down the opposing team’s rhythm from the jump. The only instance in which they lost the starters battle was when they suffered a lopsided 13-point defeat to the National University (NU) Bulldogs, where Ateneo’s opening five were only outscored by two, 31-33.
The current Ateneo team is built with three main pillars: Kai Ballungay, Chris Koon, and Joseph Obasa, all of whom carry a heavier load than the rest of the team. In their last win against UE, the big three combined for 41 of the 56 starter points and almost half of the team’s total rebounds. While the other 12 players have significantly contributed to each game, the trio has done most of the damage to keep the Blue and White afloat. The triad has been performing the best as the defending champions in their first five games, collectively averaging 10 points and eight rebounds in 26 minutes of action.
This overdependence on the starters stems from the underperformance of the second unit, which tends to crumble when put in crucial situations. Ateneo’s minutes without Ballungay, Koon, and Obasa are becoming the make-or-break stretch for the Blue Eagles, especially in their three previous close encounters against FEU, UE, and Adamson University. Every time Ballungay is subbed out, the Blue Eagles would lack shot creation on both the post and the perimeter. In the heartbreaking overtime loss against Adamson, Obasa’s rim protection was heavily missed when the 6’10” big was benched in the extra period. Meanwhile, Koon’s absence shows significant immaturity in the Blue Eagles’ playmaking ability. These details are major aspects of Coach Tab Baldwin’s system, ones that the bench needs to apply during the game’s biggest moments.
Suffice to say, it has become an unenviable task for Coach Baldwin to create an effective lineup combination that does not contain anyone from the said trio. As the games continue to roll, the staff still looks to find a consistent spark plug coming from the reserves who can provide a much-needed boost when the stars are not on the floor or are failing to contribute on a given day.
There is still time to make the necessary adjustments for the whole team to improve, but if they want to stay in the hunt and catch up with the rest of the pack, an emphasis on finding the right lineups is vital.
2. Composure issues and turnover woes
Ralph: While this unproven Ateneo roster has shown flashes of brilliance on multiple occasions, its boom-or-bust nature is too costly in a tournament wherein one win or loss can change the entire complexion of a team’s season. Granted that we should not expect immediate perfection from such a young squad, falling ill to the same form of mistakes repeatedly is something that a title hopeful should never be described by.
Despite their inconsistencies, the Blue Eagles did claw their way to snatching their only two victories in Season 86 thus far in admirable fashion. In their comeback win against the De La Salle Green Archers, Ateneo shot lights out with 30 points in the fourth period alone, and drilled a barrage of clutch triples—led by Mason Amos—to keep their rivals at bay.
Against UE, the team buckled down with multiple defensive stops in the final few minutes while doing just enough offensively for a grind-it-out win against one of the more physical teams in the league.
As such, the team does not necessarily lack skill nor passion to muster up wins, but they often get rattled and eventually make lackadaisical decisions when things get testy—indicative of growing pains rather than a question of talent. In Ateneo’s 19-point collapse against the Adamson Soaring Falcons, they rushed to take a boatload of low-percentage field goal attempts, missed clutch free throws, and succumbed to poor defensive effort with atrocious switches and late rotations.
Despite holding overtime momentum against FEU, the Blue Eagles’ ball movement in the extra period was subpar, as the number of times the offense stalled and committed errors led to only four points in overtime. As a team with a perennially well-oiled offense, many continue to hope that Ateneo’s inexperienced guards will learn how to orchestrate the system more cohesively, selflessly, and effectively. This optimistic waiting comes with spurts of frustration, as seen with how Ateneo fans took to social media to criticize Ian Espinosa’s decision-making in the Blue Eagles’ potential game-winning sequence in regulation versus FEU.
Righting the ship starts with the need for Ateneo’s ball handlers to better facilitate without getting fazed by pressure—trusting their teammates, taking higher-percentage shot attempts, and turning the ball over less especially when weathering runs. Positive results attract when the Blue Eagles protect offensive possessions—as they concede marginally fewer turnovers in wins (13.5 TOPG) than in losses (18.3 TOPG).
These aspired improvements are in line with Ateneo assistant coach Sandy Arespacochaga’s post-game remarks last Saturday, where he sought growth to be made by his troops in the analytical and emotional aspects of the game.
3. Silver linings for the Blue and White
Luis: As each member of the squad has echoed the same sentiments over the past week, their mission is clear—to find cohesion as soon as possible. Although the Blue Eagles’ ongoing struggles are far from restored, these hitches can be remedied if they collectively build on what has been working for them so far.
Across Ateneo’s two previous games, Jared Brown has shown elite consistency and toughness, especially in the clutch. The rookie guard served as the catalyst in the Blue Eagles’ escape against UE, knocking down much-needed triples when his team needed them the most. As Brown is the only Blue Eagle who shot above 40% from beyond the arc this week, he can be relied on to bury baskets from long-range at a consistent shooting clip moving forward.
Additionally, the Blue Eagles have a lot going on for them on the defensive end, completely dominating the blocks department with a cumulative 11-2 advantage in the past week, largely thanks to Obasa’s efforts down low. The rookie big man carried much of the load on defense, as he took credit for nine of Ateneo’s 11 blocks throughout the week. Owing to their relative size advantage, the Blue Eagles also outrebounded their competition, 98-81, in their last two games, as well as outperforming the opposition on the offensive glass, 28-24.
Much of Ateneo’s current woes lie in their indecisiveness on offense, coupled with their struggles to create their own shots. However, as seen in their clear dominance on the defensive end, the potential for another championship is there if the Blue Eagles can figure out their offensive identity.
In addition to clicking on all cylinders, the Blue and White must finally execute Coach Baldwin’s gameplan on a game-to-game basis. As the seasoned tactician stated in his post-game presser against the Red Warriors, “We have a long way to go. The adaptability of this team to each opponent is a little bit limited right now because of lack of experience.”
These challenges imposed by the coaching staff will be put to the test in their final two games before the mid-season break. With upcoming assignments on two opposing ends of the spectrum, the Blue Eagles will have an opportunity to conclude the first round of eliminations on a high note and send a message to the rest of the league that the Ateneo dynasty of recent memory is still alive.
This week’s games:
Wednesday, October 18, 10:00 AM vs. University of Santo Tomas Growling Tigers (0-5) at the Mall of Asia Arena
Sunday, October 22, 4:00 PM vs. University of the Philippines Fighting Maroons (5-0) at the Mall of Asia Arena
