In line with the ongoing University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Men’s Basketball Tournament, this weekly series will analyze the state of the Ateneo Blue Eagles in their quest for the three-peat.
Recap of the elimination round matchups (September 11 and October 5)
Despite a 10:30 AM Wednesday schedule, the first meeting between the Blue Eagles and the University of Santo Tomas (UST) Growling Tigers was highly anticipated, as it was a matchup of the only then-undefeated teams. The game lived up to its billing as a tightly-contested affair, featuring eight deadlocks and 14 lead changes. The Blue Eagles threatened to pull away by going on a 19-3 run to take a 13-point lead in the second quarter, but the Growling Tigers answered back with a 21-3 surge to take the lead at halftime. Both squads continued going toe-to-toe in the second half, until Ateneo took a 68-67 lead late in the final frame courtesy of an Ange Kouame tip-in to give them the lead for good.
The second clash between the two storied programs also came with a fair amount of hype—many saw the Growling Tigers as the team most capable of putting a blemish on the Blue Eagles’ spotless record. The game started out as a defensive battle, with neither team shooting better than a 31% clip. However, the pace picked up in the second half, with UST tallying 18 points in the third quarter alone, which was more than their first-half total. The Blue and White held a 13-point edge near the midway point of the fourth period, but the Growling Tigers fought back to cut the deficit down to a two possession after a Mark Nonoy triple with four minutes remaining. But UST would not get any closer, as Ateneo closed the game with a 12-4 run to end the game with a 14-point lead, which was the largest of the ballgame.
Finals schedule (Best-of-three format):
Game 1: Saturday, November 16, 4:00 PM, vs University of Santo Tomas at the Smart Araneta Coliseum, Quezon City
Game 2: Wednesday, November 20, 4:00 PM, vs University of Santo Tomas at the Mall of Asia Arena, Pasay City
Game 3 (If necessary): Saturday, November 23, 4:00 PM, vs University of Santo Tomas at the Mall of Asia Arena, Pasay City
1. Controlling the pace
Neal: Throughout the season, the Blue Eagles have shown their ability to play at different paces, depending on their opponent. Conversely, UST plays like a typical Aldin Ayo-coached team: They play fast, wreak havoc on both ends, and create an orderly-type of chaos. The Growling Tigers thrive by pushing the ball at every opportunity, forcing turnovers with their full-court press, and shooting a large volume of three-pointers. This fast paced offense has been a key cog in UST’s elimination round campaign, which they ended with a 79.2 points average per game, ranking first in the UAAP. The Growling Tigers’ success is also the result of how their “Mayhem” system is tailored-fit to their personnel. They have athletic guards, such as Rhenz Abando and Mark Nonoy, that love going up and down the court, as well as sweet-shooting marksmen like Renzo Subido, Sherwin Concepcion, and CJ Cansino.
However, in the two previous meetings between the two squads, the Blue Eagles stifled the Growling Tigers’ potent offensive attack, holding the España-based team to an average of 61 points in those two games. Most notably, Ateneo held UST to just 17 points in the first half of their second round matchup despite Ange Kouame, who leads the UAAP in blocks, sitting out most of the opening 2o minutes with foul trouble. The Blue Eagles found success by running their offense mostly from the half-court and limiting their turnovers. As a result, they were able to slow the pace, preventing UST from getting out on the fastbreak and forcing the Growling Tigers to execute in the half-court. In the two match-ups, Ateneo won the turnover battle with a -7 edge while also limiting UST to only 16 fastbreak points.
Watch out for the pace at which the games are going to be played, as it will be a key factor in the series. Fast-paced and high-scoring games favor the Growling Tigers because it is an indication that they are playing the way they want to play. The Blue Eagles will have to exercise patience, slow the game down on offense, and prevent UST’s dangerous weapons from doing damage in transition.
2. David vs. Goliath
Gio: Approaching the end of Ateneo’s 16-day break from action, it feels as if almost an eternity has passed since the Blue Eagles last graced the court. Ateneo is making their fourth straight finals appearance, entering the cusp of a three-peat with the cornerstones of their dynasty: Isaac Go, Thirdy Ravena, Adrian Wong, and the Nieto twins. UST, on the other hand, is entering their first finals series since the Kevin Ferrer-era Growling Tigers in 2015, when current veterans Subido, Huang, and Caunan were merely freshmen. This edition of the Growling Tigers stacks up very differently from Ateneo in terms of age and experience with a roster comprised of nine rookies, who have only begun to dip their toes in the waters of Final Four basketball.
Nevertheless, Coach Aldin Ayo expressed his delight at the growth in maturity of his promising rookie class during his last elimination round press conference. UST’s most recent performances are a warning sign that their apparent lack of experience is not to be underestimated. Their last three matches have each held win-or-go-home stakes: The final game of the elimination round against Adamson University and both showdowns against the University of the Philippines. Closing each game out is a testament to the character they have shown as a team on the rise. Guided by an unrelenting coach and a few seasoned competitors, this young squad will give the Blue Eagles a run for their money.
The biggest question for Ateneo is if they can come into Game 1 of the Finals in peak form. History has shown that undefeated teams who advance straight to the finals show signs of rust, such as the University of the East in 2007. More recently, Ateneo’s Philippines National Collegiate Athletic Association counterparts San Beda University suffered their first loss of the season, 65-64, against the 4th-seeded Letran University after not seeing action for 27 days. However, Ateneo carries the advantage of being accustomed to the finals atmosphere and the extra bright lights it brings. Expect the Blue Eagles to grind it out play-by-play, like they have all season long.
3. Defensive masterclass
Jaime: Throughout the season, Ateneo has established an enormous gap between their defense from the rest of the teams in the tournament. This has manifested in a tournament-leading 59.5 points allowed per game, which places them 13.6 points ahead of the league average of 73.1. This suffocating defense has lifted Ateneo from games when their offense is limited by atrocious shooting. Much of this can be credited to Ateneo’s discipline, strength and length, and a certain man in the middle.
Ateneo also forces a ridiculous league-leading 20 turnovers per game while committing only 15 fouls per game, the fewest in the tournament. Here we see the discipline Coach Tab Baldwin has instilled in his players. Players do not gamble and reach—which are cardinal sins in basketball—but position themselves along driving lanes and aggressively apply pressure on ball-handlers. They read opposing offensive schemes with the ease of an adult reading a children’s book—a testament to the consistency they exude on defense.
If the Blue Eagles’ discipline makes them good on the defensive end, their strength and length makes them great. Namely, the physical and mental growth of primary stopper Gian Mamuyac and forward Will Navarro have made them forces to reckon with on the defensive end. Their added bulk complements their seemingly never-ending limbs, turning the two into nightmares for opponents by shooting passing lanes and leaving no breathing room for bigs and ball handlers. The strength of Matt Nieto, Mike Nieto, and Thirdy Ravena will also make it difficult for their wirier UST counterparts in Renzo Subido, Mark Nonoy, and Rhenz Abando to maintain effectiveness on the perimeter
For all this size and smarts on the defensive end, having Angelo Kouame patrolling the paint is what elevates the Blue Eagles to an all-time team on D. On paper, Kouame has been dominant with a league-leading 3.86 blocks per game. However, what differentiates him from a defensive juggernaut like Ben Mbala, formerly from the De La Salle Green Archers, is his efficiency and length on defense. Kouame is more economical and cerebral that his Cameroonian predecessor in his approach on the defensive end. Mbala would make flashy attempts for emphatic rejections, but if he missed the ball, he would usually be caught out of position for a possible drop pass, or a follow-up shot. Kouame is generally grounded on defense, using his positioning and length to bother passing lanes and contest shots. Seldom will you see him jumping out of position to block a shot that is out of reach.
Kouame’s defensive prowess is the glue that holds Ateneo’s defense together. As the last line of defense, perimeter defenders like Mamuyac are able to focus on their jobs, confident that if their feet fail them, Number 34 is waiting by the rim ready to take on challengers.
With the stakes higher than ever, look for the Blue Eagles to rise to the occasion and wreak havoc on UST’s fast-paced offense. As evidenced by round one’s down-the-wire meeting, the Growling Tigers are worthy challengers. However, it remains to be seen if they can overcome the phenomenon that is Ateneo’s defense.
Predictions
Neal: At one point in the season, I thought that if there was one team that could beat Ateneo, it would be UST because of their ability to explode on offense. The Growling Tigers have a multi-dimensional attack, with Soulemane Chabi Yo being a versatile scorer inside surrounded by snipers like Renzo Subido, Mark Nonoy, Rhenz Abando, Sherwin Concepcion, and CJ Cansino. My opinion about this changed mid-season when I witnessed UST struggle to put points on the board against the Blue Eagles even if Ange Kouame sat out with foul trouble. That being said, UST should come out as the sharper team, as they survived three straight elimination games. If they get hot and have that mental edge, they can steal a game in this series—and if there was a game to do it, it would be Game 1. However, I also believe that Ateneo has been on another level this season, especially on defense. If they continue locking down UST the same way they did in that second round matchup, then the Ateneo three-peat will be complete after two games.
Jaime: Before the season, Gio and I caught a couple of Ateneo’s tune-up games against professional teams in the Philippine Basketball Association. At that point, the Blue Eagles already looked extremely sharp, bamboozling professional squads with the same disciplined approach that led them to the sweep. UST will make life difficult for Ateneo, as Aldin Ayo’s timely tactics and the presence of UAAP Season 82 Most Valuable Player Soulemane Chabi Yo will have the defending champions searching for answers at times. Moreover, as Neal mentioned, they have an array of snipers to stretch the Ateneo defense. However, at the start of the season, I remember thinking a sweep wasn’t out of the question. I wasn’t thinking about the elimination rounds, but the whole season. I stand by that prediction, and think Ateneo will just need two games to finish the season sweep. The games will be gritty and close, but the Blue Eagles’ experience will prove to be too much for the emerging Growling Tigers.
Gio: Given that UST has the momentum and that Ateneo is coming off a long break, it is hard to give a clear answer as to who has the upperhand. But if Ateneo manages to snatch the first game, it would take a perfect game from UST to stop them from closing out the series in the second meeting.
