In line with the ongoing University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Season 81 Men’s Basketball Finals, this preview series will analyze the state of the Ateneo Blue Eagles in their quest to successfully defend the crown.

Game 1 Recap (December 1):

Coming off a stunning upset of the Adamson Soaring Falcons just days before, the University of the Philippines (UP) Fighting Maroons showed no signs of fatigue, waxing hot from long distance to go toe-to-toe against Thirdy Ravena’s 11 first quarter points. A couple of energizing plays from Matt Nieto and Gian Mamuyac seemed to wrestle the momentum back for the Blue and White, but a booming buzzer-beating triple from Jun Manzo brought UP within one, 39-38, to end the first half.

Despite Bright Akhuetie being sidelined after contact with Angelo Kouame in the third quarter, multiple fast breaks from UP and Manzo’s brilliant play pit against a balanced offensive effort from the Blue and White kept the score close in the fourth kanto. Akhuetie made his return midway through the fourth quarter. However, fatigue seemed to set in for UP. As a result, Ateneo’s defensive discipline showed up, forcing consecutive stops to suddenly erect a 12-point lead, 84-72, as the Blue Eagles went on to capture Game 1, 88-79.

Ateneo-UP: 26-18, 39-38, 63-61, 88-79

Upcoming games:

December 5, Wednesday, 3:30 PM vs. UP Fighting Maroons at the Araneta Coliseum in Cubao.

IF NECESSARY: December 8, Saturday, 3:30 PM vs. UP Fighting Maroons at the Mall of Asia Arena in Pasay City.

Previewing Game 2:

After a huge Game 1 win by the Blue Eagles, they are now on the cusp of winning back-to-back championships for the first time since the five-peat era from 2008-2013, and it’s looking like a dynasty is being formed. Only the sharpshooting Anton Asistio will move on from the team next year, bringing back a core that has won 30 of the 35 games they’ve played in Seasons 80 and 81 so far.

Coach Tab Baldwin has created a formidable system in Ateneo. The Blue Eagles have won nine straight games dating back to the second round, including seven double-digit wins, and it doesn’t seem like the well-oiled machine is slowing down anytime soon. Their proficiency on the offensive end and their discipline on defense allow them to overwhelm their opponents on both ends of the court. There is no off day with this team, and if they win it all in Game 2, would it be premature to say this could be the start of another dynasty similar to the five-peat era? Perhaps not.

Meanwhile, the UP Fighting Maroons are the feel-good story of Season 81. Surmounting a rough first round to erase a 21-year Final Four drought? Check. Overcoming a twice-to-beat advantage to reach the Finals for the first time in 32 years? Check.

These Fighting Maroons weren’t supposed to be here this season. They were pegged as dark horses to reach the Final Four, but not the Finals. Next year was supposed to be their year, with the likes of Ricci Rivero and Kobe Paras bolstering the UP roster alongside Bright Akhuetie and Juan Gomez de Liaño. But this year? Not a chance! Even after averaging 16.6 PPG albeit on a subpar 33.5% field-goal percentage (FG%) (80/239) in Season 80’s elimination rounds, Desiderio was a bit too inefficient to lead his team to the promised land. But with the help of a stronger supporting cast, an improved 38.6% FG% (76/197) in Season 81’s elimination rounds, and his #AtinTo mantra, Desiderio has spurred his team to the finals, proving many people wrong.

But how far can the Fighting Maroons go? They’ve already exceeded all expectations, can they go even further and force a Game 3?

With an all-important Game 2 fast approaching, let’s look at some key matchups that could swing the match in favor of either squads.

Key Matchups:

1. Kouame vs. Akhuetie

With Matt Nieto, Ravena, and Manzo stepping up for their respective teams, the big guys in the middle combined for only 17 points in Game 1, a far cry from the 14.4 points per game (PPG) and 18.9 PPG numbers that Angelo Kouame and Akhuetie, respectively, averaged in the elimination round.

However, the real story between the towering big men is their post presence on both ends of the floor. The team who wins the battle of the boards usually emerges victorious as it leads to more possessions and shot attempts. This held true in Game 1 in which Ateneo claimed the edge in rebounds (45-38) allowing the Blue Eagles 10 more shot attempts than their UP counterparts (73-63).

Kouame’s 32 minutes on the floor allowed the big man to secure 12 rebounds which neared his elimination round norm of 13.6 rebounds per game (RPG). However, the glaring discrepancy is Akhuetie’s measly five boards, much less than his league-leading 14.6 RPG, after 24 minutes of action.

The Fighting Maroons actually went neck-and-neck against the Blue Eagles in the rebounding department in the first half, grabbing 23 rebounds against Ateneo’s 25, allowing them to keep within a single point at halftime before being outrebounded by five in the second half.

Thus, a telling indicator of the match’s outcome will depend on who can sustain their effort on the glass for the whole 40 minutes, and that starts with the battle of the bigs in the middle.  

2. Ravena vs. Desiderio

Ravena and Desiderio are the undisputed heart and soul of their respective squads. Despite Ravena giving way to Kouame and Desiderio making way for Akhuetie and Juan Gomez de Liaño in terms of the scoring load, these veterans are often entrusted to score when the stakes are highest.

Lost in the frenzy of Matt Nieto’s career-high in Game 1 was Ravena’s jaw-dropping stat line of 21 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks. Those are MVP-caliber numbers, and it showed in his play. The veteran forward was aggressive throughout the game, taking advantage and scoring on one-on-one situations, with none of the UP perimeter defenders capable of staying in front of him. When the help defense came, he simply found an open teammate in the corner or dropped it off to his big men down low for easy baskets. Ravena was rolling, and the Blue Eagles rolled with him.

Meanwhile, the once trigger-happy Desiderio was suddenly dishing out assist after assist, mostly to the hot-handed Manzo. The Cebuano swingman finished the game with 8 dimes, but with his unselfish play, there seemed to be something missing: his much-needed scoring.

Desiderio scored his season-low of 5 points while attempting only six shots. His lack of rhythm showed when he shot an airball three in the middle of the fourth quarter. Even Diego Dario attempted eight shots. How can it be that the heart and soul of this UP squad attempted less shots than a backup guard?

A part of it was the excellent defense by the Blue Eagles that forced Desiderio to give the ball up to his teammates for better shots. Regardless, the Fighting Maroons need more from him than superb passing. He’s the leader of this team because of his ability to score, and not just his playmaking. Creating good looks for your teammates is one thing, but scoring when it matters, as he has done so often, is another.

With their backs against the wall, Desiderio needs to become more aggressive in looking for his shots and gaining his rhythm if UP wants any chance of extending the series.

3. Matt Nieto vs. Juan Gomez de Liaño

A career-high in scoring for Matt Nieto resulted in a win, while a steady game from Juan Gomez de Liaño, really an excellent game for most other players, led to a loss. Ball handlers play a crucial role in dictating the tempo and the rhythm of the offense. When the floor general leads his team to their proper spots, it allows the offense to run smoothly.

Matt Nieto brings stability and calmness to the Blue Eagle offense. Every possession he commands is like a machine with all its gears running smoothly. He doesn’t force anything; he simply leads his teammates to their proper positions, gets to his own spots, attacks the open lanes, and hits the open jumpers.

He’s the perfect system player—smart and composed. His eye-popping 27 points was a result of everything clicking together. The former Blue Eaglet sank four of his five triples, converted five of seven from the foul line, and exploited the open lanes, leading to easy baskets. There was nothing fancy, no ankle-breaking crossovers or tough stepback jumpers. It was all within the flow of the offense.

Juan Gomez de Liaño plays a similar role albeit in a different manner. He fits right into UP’s fast-paced offense that looks to force the issue in every single possession to create openings and imbalances in the defense. The sophomore guard is fast, athletic, and skilled on the open floor. He can get to any spot on the floor anytime he wants.  

The Season 80 Rookie of the Year scored 17 points in Game 1, not an uncommon sight for him, but it still wasn’t enough to grab a win. In the first round meeting of Ateneo and UP last September, Juan Gomez de Liaño notched a career-high 29 points, and that wasn’t enough either. Maybe what UP needs from their talented young combo guard is not his scoring, but his playmaking.

Juan Gomez de Liaño is a terrific playmaker. Not only is he just the Fighting Maroons’ most talented shot creator, he is also the league’s most talented shot creator, with his 5.5 assists per game (APG) in the elimination rounds topping the UAAP charts. His ability to create shot opportunities off a screen is elite, and needless to say, his vision is great. But in the two aforementioned games, the UP alumnus racked up a total of only 3 assists. Juan Gomez de Liaño is dangerous as a scorer, but he becomes almost unstoppable when he is able to balance his scoring and playmaking.

The key for him in Game 2 is to unleash his passing ability. By finding his teammates, he can force the defense to play more honestly, freeing up space for him to effectively finish inside. With that, perhaps he can finally crack open the enigmatic Ateneo defense.

As mentioned in the Game 1 preview, pace will be a crucial factor of the game’s result. In this regard, it is up to both teams’ orchestrators to set the tone of the ballgame and bend their opponents to their will.

4. Asistio vs. Manzo

Sharpshooter vs slasher. Their abilities to explode and provide much-needed firepower to complement their star teammates make them the X-factors for their respective teams and an interesting matchup to look out for.  

Anton Asistio waxed hot to start his final UAAP season, averaging 9.6 PPG with 2.7 triples an outing on 52.8% shooting in the first round. However, he has slowed down as of late, dropping his averages to 6.0 PPG with 1.3 triples per game on 34.6% shooting in the second round. He’s been a non-factor on offense in the Final Four so far, scoring 3 points against the Far Eastern University (FEU) Tamaraws in the semis and 4 points in Game 1.

What the stat sheet doesn’t show, however, is the spacing that the graduating guard provides as a threatening perimeter shooter. His accuracy from deep prevents his man from providing help defense to drives and cuts. However, with his recent shooting slump, UP can gamble more with their help defense. They can be more willing to help off him as he struggles to connect from deep.

That said, it’s important for Asistio to find his range soon. The Blue Eagles survived Game 1 even without his shooting, but if he finally regains his accuracy in Game 2, expect Ateneo to claim the crown in convincing fashion.

As for Manzo, the spitfire point guard surprisingly exploded for a career-high 19 points in Game 1 after averaging 7.5 PPG in the elimination rounds. He was aggressive and confident in attacking the basket, finding open lanes and somehow getting his shot off against taller and more athletic defenders. He was a huge reason why UP was able to keep the game close as he more than doubled his season average in scoring.

It’s hard to ask for anything more from Manzo. Games where he plays this way are games that UP should’ve won. But it’s a tall task against the defending champions. If there’s a consolation for Manzo’s career game, it should be the confidence boost he got from it. Realizing that he is capable of putting up buckets against the league’s best defense should inspire him to continue staying aggressive and keep attacking the basket to put pressure on the Ateneo bigs.

With both teams hungry to win, Game 2 will surely be a dogfight. Ateneo will maintain their discipline in their execution. There’s too much at stake for them to lose focus at this juncture of the season. Allowing a Game 3 will shift the momentum to UP, and they wouldn’t want that. As for the Fighting Maroons who have their backs against the wall, they have no choice but to fight for their survival. It’s win or go home for them, and as we have seen in their series against the Soaring Falcons, we should expect them to do everything in their power to win.

The result remains uncertain, but the thrill and excitement of Game 2 will surely bring us to the edge of our seats.