In line with the ongoing University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Season 81 Men’s Basketball Tournament, this weekly series will analyze the state of the Ateneo Blue Eagles in their quest to successfully defend the crown.

Recap of the week (October 24 to October 27):

Photo by Kelly Veneracion

The Ateneo Blue Eagles extended their winning streak to four and their win total to 11 after defeating the bottom two seeds, the University of the East (UE) Red Warriors and the National University (NU) Bulldogs.

Dominating UE from the opening tip, the Blue Eagle arsenal was on full display in the first half, hitting shots at a remarkable rate while clamping down defensively to lead 57-24 at the half. The advantage proved to be enough despite the Red Warriors’ gritty comeback attempt in the second half as Tyler Tio’s career game resulted in a 90-70 victory for Ateneo.

The Blue and White continued their well-rounded display against NU. With Thirdy Ravena taking his aggressiveness up a notch, the Bulldogs did not have a chance, conceding a 47-25 deficit at the halftime break. Rookie John Lloyd Clemente tried to will his team back into the game, catching fire from deep en route to a career-high 25 points. However, Ateneo’s lead ultimately overwhelmed the Navy and Gold, 79-64.

Ateneo-UE: 29-15, 57-24, 73-51, 90-70

Ateneo-NU: 22-11, 47-25, 65-47, 79-64

Upcoming games:

November 4, Sunday, 4:00 PM vs. Adamson University (AdU) Soaring Falcons at the Ynares Sports Arena in Antipolo City

1. Sluggish second half performances are a cause for concern

Photo by Reyneal Vargas

Jumping off to huge leads in the first half against rebuilding teams like UE and lower-tier teams like NU shouldn’t come as a surprise for the Blue Eagles. After building 33-point and 22-point advantages after just one half, the Blue and White seemed poised to see out an easy finish.

However, what does come off as surprising in the past two games is the seemingly sluggish defense of the Blue Eagles to start their second halves.

After holding UE to a mere 24 points in the first half, the Blue Eagles gave up basket after basket, including three straight steals, that lead to a 16-3 UE run in the first five minutes of the second half.

The Red Warriors ended up doubling their first half output to outscore the defending champions, 46-33, in the second half, turning a 33-point halftime deficit to a 20-point loss after the final buzzer.

The NU match followed the same pattern. In the first half, Ateneo’s stifling defense held the Bulldogs to 25 points, including a 2/9 clip from three-point land courtesy of Clemente. But the Blue Eagles looked like a different team on defense in the second half as they allowed NU four threes that cut cut the 22-point halftime lead to just 12 points with less than three minutes left in the third frame.

That was the closest the Bulldogs would get, but they still outscored Ateneo, 39-32, in the second half.

In the UE game, Ateneo’s inability to take care of the ball and the Red Warriors’ control of the pace in the second half was the difference. Giving up 11 turnovers that lead to 14 turnover points and 15 fastbreak points gave the Red Warriors, the fastest team in the league (79.95 possessions per game), free reins to play to their strength in an uptempo game.

While this may seem like an aberration for Ateneo, the most disciplined team in the UAAP with only 14.5 turnovers per game, it’s still a cause of concern. In those first five minutes of the second half, the Blue Eagles looked a step slower, failing to break out of UE’s traps and throwing the ball away carelessly. They were also slow to get back in their transition defense as the Red Warriors feasted on easy layups.

The Blue and White had a similar problem against NU albeit from a different area on the court. Head Coach Tab Baldwin’s wards were slow to close out on shooters, giving up numerous wide open jumpers which allowed NU to chalk up 26 perimeter points in the second half.

Despite the convincing final scoreline, getting outscored by rebuilding teams in the second half is somewhat concerning. It was a lack of defensive effort more than anything else, and it was not something typical for the Blue Eagles.

Give credit to UE and NU for their resilience and grit to keep fighting despite facing massive deficits, but this should be a reminder for the Blue and White to play hard for the whole 40 minutes. They cannot afford lapses like these against the league’s best.

With discipline and consistency at the forefront of Coach Baldwin’s system, the Katipunan-based squad should be able to fine-tune their mistakes sooner rather than later.

2. Anton Asistio cools off after a blazing start to the season

Photo by Zoey Ignacio

Season 81’s best sniper has finally succumbed to the fundamental law of averages. After averaging 10.1 points per game (PPG), 2.6 triples per outing (3rd in the league), and an incredible 52.3% from deep (1st in the league) in the first nine games, Anton Asistio was held scoreless in the past two games while shooting a collective 0/5 from rainbow country.

A key element in Ateneo’s offense, Asistio’s long range ability provides space and breathing room in the paint for the Blue Eagles. Because of his shooting threat, opposing defenses are forced to stay honest in defending Ateneo’s inside game, taking away extra help defenders in Ravena’s drives and Angelo Kouame’s post plays.

Against UE and NU, there was no significant letdown in the Blue Eagle offense despite Asistio’s poor shooting as Ateneo shot 53.19% and 48.98%, respectively, from inside.  This comes off as no surprise since both teams are on the bottom-half of the standings in terms of interior defense, with UE allowing 35.6 points in the paint per game (7th in the league) while NU gives up 32.8 PPG (5th in the league).

However, it’ll be tough to maintain that kind of efficiency when faced with tougher defensive teams like the AdU Soaring Falcons. Because aside from the spacing it provides, Asistio’s sniping adds a different dimension to the Blue and White’s offense.

The 5’10” guard is Ateneo’s counterpart of the Philadelphia 76ers’ JJ Redick. Similar to Redick, Asistio gets a lot of his threes by curling or popping out of numerous off-ball screens to fire away open jumpers. The added scoring option keeps opposing defenses on their toes at all times and relieves defensive pressure from staple scorers like Ravena and Kouame.

With the second best defensive unit in the Soaring Falcons coming up next for the Blue and White, it is absolutely vital for Asistio to regain his range. Considering how the AdU defense uses its length to crowd the paint, Ateneo’s knockdown sniper could be the X-factor that tips the scale in the Blue Eagles’ favor.

3. Numerous statistical leaps and improved play from Raffy Verano

Photo by Reyneal Vargas

Prior to the season’s start, few could have predicted Verano’s emergence as a potent offensive threat. Sure, everyone knew that the California-raised product was flexible on the defensive end, constantly using his bulky frame to defend the forward positions while using his speed and hustle to defend smaller guards and some centers at times.

Despite this, however, Verano looked somewhat uncomfortable on the offensive end last season—as seen by his occasional hesitation beyond the three-point line and in attempts to create scoring opportunities off the dribble.

This season, the 6’3” forward looks like a completely different player. Numerous times this season, Verano showed off his ability to hit faceup jumpers from the high post or switching it up by taking his man off the dribble for a lay-up.

Comparing his performance through the first 10 games of Season 80 and Season 81 through a number of stats, Verano’s leap on the offensive end is certainly noticeable.

For this season, the Burbank product’s scoring output took a jump from 5.8 PPG in Season 80 to 8.3 PPG in Season 81. His improvement and willingness to act as a spot up shooter and pick and pop threat also showed in his increased shot attempts this season.

Last season, Verano converted three of nine shots from three-point land to go 33%—3.7% higher than the 29.3% league average at the time. This season, Verano has taken 20 triples so far while making eight of them, seeing the forward shoot a much improved 40% from three-point land while upping his attempts by a full 11 shots.

From two-point range meanwhile, Verano’s decision to shoot 15 shots more than last season resulted in a slight drop in two-point field goal percentage for the bulky four-spot player, as he dropped from 19/44 (43.2%) in Season 80 to 25/59 (42.4%) in Season 81.

Despite an increased presence on the offensive end this season, Verano managed to improve on the non-scoring facets of his game as well. In terms of rebounds per game (RPG), Verano’s numbers made the leap from 2.5 RPG in Season 80 to 4.9 RPG in Season 81. He also bothered ball handlers as the forward improved from 0.4 steals per game (SPG) in Season 80 to 1.2 SPG in Season 81.

With bouts against some of the league’s best in the AdU Soaring Falcons and the De La Salle University (DLSU) Green Archers coming up, it will be interesting to see if Verano can sustain his stellar improvements this season. To conclude, here is a summary of Verano’s stats through the first 10 games of Season 80, and the first 10 games of Season 81.

Season 81: 8.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 0.6 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.1 bpg, 19.8 mpg

Season 80: 5.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.4 spg, 0.1 bpg, 14.2 mpg

4. Looking at the game plan against AdU

Photo by Mark Anastacio

With the Blue Eagles and the Soaring Falcons sitting atop the UAAP standings, Ateneo vs AdU is the marquee matchup of the second round. And after a thrilling wire-to-wire finish in their first round matchup, we’re not expecting anything less from their second round meeting.

The Ateneo-AdU meeting in the second round is poised to be a grind it out, defensive affair. Ateneo and AdU boast the first and second best defenses in the league, with both teams ranking in the top three across almost all defensive categories.

However, one significant chink in the Soaring Falcons’ defensive armor is their discipline in the paint. Although still in the top half of the league, AdU is only fourth in points in the paint allowed (32.0). They are the second to the worst fouling team, giving up 20.8 fouls per game and their 14.2 free throws conceded per game is the most in the league. In addition, their defensive rebounding unit is fifth in the league, with 45.1 RPG.

These numbers bode well for the Blue Eagles who are excellent inside operators, norming 34.0 PPG in the paint (2nd in the league), due in large part to the dominance of Kouame and Ravena in the shaded lane. Ateneo is one of the most aggressive teams so far, drawing 21.2 fouls per game from their opponents (2nd in the league). Lastly, the Blue and White’s scrappiness and hustle makes them a premier rebounding team, grabbing 46.9 RPG (3rd in the league).

Compared to AdU, the Katipunan-based squad is the slightly superior offensive team, ranking marginally higher in almost every offensive statistic available. However, AdU’s weaknesses on this side of the court are their turnovers and their bench. The Soaring Falcons turn the ball over 15.4 times an outing (5th in the league), and their bench is dead last in the UAAP, producing only 23.3 PPG.

Exploiting the San Marcelino-based squad’s carelessness with the ball will be imperative for the Blue Eagles (2nd best in the league, forcing 18.7 turnovers per game). Clamping down on the starters and putting pressure on the bench to produce will also be a key factor.

Despite all of these, the Soaring Falcons’ success starts and ends with their star wing duo of Jerrick Ahanmisi and Sean Manganti. The two are the second and seventh best scorers in the UAAP, with averages of 18.2 PPG and 15.1 PPG, respectively.

Ahanmisi is also one of the best snipers in the league with 3.1 triples a game (2nd in the UAAP), shooting at a 40.6% clip from behind the three-point line (3rd in the UAAP). Manganti, meanwhile, is an elite force inside the arc, norming 4.2 two-point makes per game (7th in the UAAP) at an efficient 51.4% clip (8th in the UAAP).

However, what makes both players so important is their defensive impact. Manganti’s quick hands and length swipe 1.3 steals a game (3rd in the league) while Ahanmisi’s instincts and ability to weave through screens effortlessly a la Paul George makes him a tough defender to shake off.

Thus, the game plan against AdU should be staying aggressive inside on offense. At the same time, controlling the boards, playing the passing lanes and forcing turnovers, and clamping down on the starters, especially Ahanmisi’s outside sniping and Manganti’s production inside the arc are vital on the defensive end.

Executing all this still does not ensure a win for Ateneo. That in itself speaks to how good this Soaring Falcon side is. However, at the very least, this increases the Blue Eagles’ odds in claiming solo first spot in the standings.