In line with the ongoing University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Season 81 Men’s Basketball Tournament, this weekly series will analyze the state of the Ateneo Blue Eagles in their quest to successfully defend the crown.

Recap of the week (November 4):

There was a lot of hype entering the Ateneo-Adamson matchup, with the top two teams clashing for the last time before the Final Four begins. Sloppy play from the Blue Eagles caused by good defense from the Adamson University (AdU) Soaring Falcons made it a dogfight in the first half that ended in a low-scoring 26-17 in Ateneo’s favor.

An offensive explosion from Anton Asistio ignited a 15-4 run to start the second half, allowing the Blue and White to go up by as much as 20 midway through the third quarter. Ateneo’s defense held up the rest of the way, cruising to a 62-48 victory to cement themselves atop the UAAP standings.

Ateneo-AdU: 9-9, 26-17, 46-31, 62-48

Upcoming games:

November 11, Sunday, 4:00 PM vs. De La Salle University (DLSU) Green Archers at the Araneta Coliseum in Cubao, Quezon City

November 14, Wednesday, 2:00 PM vs. University of Santo Tomas (UST) Growling Tigers at the Mall of Asia (MOA) Arena in Pasay City

1. Unlocking the offense with small ball lineups

Struggling to find any offensive rhythm in the first half of their game against the Soaring Falcons with only 26 points to their credit, Coach Tab Baldwin made a surprising in-game adjustment. The veteran coach decided to sit out two of the team’s best players in Thirdy Ravena and Angelo Kouame. He instead opted to start Tyler Tio, Anton Asistio, Matt Nieto, Raffy Verano, and Isaac Go in the second half.

In less than five minutes of play, the Blue Eagles established a huge 20-point lead, 41-21, behind a 15-4 run to start the third quarter. So how did it happen? Part of it was simply the brilliance of Asistio, who scored six of the 15 points via back-to-back triples while assisting on a Verano and-one basket.

However, the subtle advantage that this lineup provided was spacing. Having five capable shooters on the floor spread AdU’s defense, leading to numerous open lanes that caused scrambles and openings for the Blue Eagles as seen in this play.

Notice the spacing on Tio’s drive. He was the only Blue Eagle inside the arc and his drive to the basket forced the AdU defense to collapse, leaving numerous shooters wide open just like Isaac Go in this sequence.

Another advantage this unit possesses is the versatility of each player on the floor. All five guys are triple-threats capable of shooting, penetrating, and finding their open teammates. This forces each defensive player to give more focus on their individual assignments, limiting the effectiveness of the help defense because when they keep their eye off their man, any of the five guys can make them pay.

These small ball lineups are also very malleable and could take advantage of the Blue Eagles’ wealth of backcourt talent. Coach Baldwin can easily slide Ravena or Mike Nieto into that four slot and use three guard lineups with Tio, Asistio, Matt Nieto, Jolo Mendoza, or SJ Belangel.

Although a small sample size, these types of five-man units have a theoretical potential of being a potent offensive weapon for the Blue and White.

The only the downside to these lineups is defense. Having three guys below six feet on the court at one time is potentially disastrous on the defensive end without the length and athleticism to matchup against the bigger and longer wings of opposing teams.

However, the lack of size can be negated through proper communication and a disciplined defensive system, something Ateneo has in its arsenal. With enough practice, these small lineups can compensate for their physical incapabilities and hold their own on the defensive end.

With two games remaining before the Final Four, it will be interesting to see if Coach Baldwin will continue to experiment with these small ball lineups. Having this card in Ateneo’s back pocket during the Final Four will surely be a nightmare for the other UAAP teams.

2. Time is on SJ Belangel’s side

In high school, Belangel was a highly versatile scorer. The guard was capable of beating his man both in the paint and in the perimeter, and he looked comfortable doing it in a number of ways, whether it be off the catch, on an isolation, or off the dribble with an occasional step-back or spin move to spice things up.

However, in the early stages of the first round, Belangel was clearly adjusting to the big leap in competition in the seniors division, as much taller and stronger players now served as defenders on the opposing end. Although Belangel struggled early on, the 6’0 floor general is slowly but surely being acquainted with collegiate basketball.

Early on, Belangel seemed hesitant to attack his defender off the dribble, with the guard often opting to settle for outside shots or passing to his teammates instead. In the second round, however, Belangel impressed with a number of mid-range jumpers and drives to the basket against the NU Bulldogs and the University of the East Red Warriors.

Belangel also commands the offense at a mature level, unafraid to run the pick and roll while instructing his teammates to find their spots in the offense.

Stats-wise, the former UAAP Juniors Champion’s scoring development is evident as the guard’s numbers shot up from 1.7 points per game (PPG) before the Blue Eagles’ first-round match-up against DLSU, to an improved 3.1 PPG as of late. Belangel’s assists numbers also took a leap—increasing from 0.4 assists per game (APG) to 0.7 APG in an additional average of about 2.1 minutes of play in each game in Matt Nieto’s absence.

Speaking of Matt Nieto, the Blue Eagles will be hoping that Belangel takes a similar stride in development as the smaller Nieto has since his rookie year. In Matt Nieto’s first year of play, the Ateneo High School alumnus averaged 3.5 PPG, 1.8 rebounds per game (RPG), and 2.3 APG on 18.6 minutes per game (MPG). Currently, Belangel’s statline sees the guard averaging 3.1 PPG, 0.9 RPG, and 0.7 APG on 9.8 MPG—a well 8.8 minutes below Matt Nieto’s in his rookie season.

With Belangel, the talent is certainly there; his decision-making and feel for the game should only improve as more minutes and games come his way. As a rookie, the UAAP Juniors Mythical Five member has time on his side.

3. Looking ahead at the Blue Eagles’ clash with a familiar foe

In terms of strengths, the Green Archers are excellent in terms of rebounding and controlling the paint on the defensive end. Currently, the Taft-based side comes in first in the rebounding category, posting an average of about 48.7 RPG. Their grit off the glass also contributes to their placement at the helm of other numerous statistics; coming in second in second chance points (15.1), while conceding the least points in the paint (28.4) and second chance points (10.8) in the league.

However, Ateneo is also an excellent team in the shaded area as they are third in the rebounding department with 46.8 RPG, first in second chance points (15.6), second in points in the paint allowed (29.0), and second in allowed second chance buckets (11.3).

With regard to weaknesses, assists, turnovers, and a poor shooting clip from inside the three-point line prove to be the bane in the DLSU system. Currently, the Green Archers are tied with NU at last place in terms of APG, posting about 13.5 per game. In the turnovers category, the Green and White are at seventh, committing about 16.5 faults per game while allowing 13.7 points off turnovers to rank seventh in the league. Lastly, the Green Archers finish seventh in terms of two-point shooting (2PT%) with 42.7%, possibly due to poor spacing and below-par ball movement.

Thus, the key to limiting the Green and White offensively is to pressure the passing lane and force errant passes and turnovers. Closing the passing lanes would also result to more isolation plays for DLSU that would result to tougher, lower quality shots.

Meanwhile, on the other end, the Blue Eagles should stay patient on offense and avoid forcing their way into the paint to take difficult shots. The Green Archers have an excellent interior defense, so Ateneo will have to draw green shirts to the perimeter and take advantage of DLSU’s mediocre perimeter defense (4th in perimeter points allowed with 22.2 per game).

With a variety of lineups to experiment and several chinks in the Green Archers’ armor, Coach Baldwin will have a lot on his mind. Will he expose DLSU’s weakness in defending the perimeter by torching them with his small ball lineups but risk the size disadvantage against the best rebounding team in the league, or will he play conservative and match the bigs of the Green and White?

All we can do is wait and see until tip-off later at 4:00 PM at the SMART Araneta Coliseum in Cubao.