In line with the ongoing University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Season 81 Men’s Basketball Tournament, this weekly series will analyze the state of the Ateneo Blue Eagles in their quest to successfully defend the crown.

Recap of the week (October 14 to October 20):

Photo by Joshua Tan

After a stunning 60-63 loss to the Far Eastern University (FEU) Tamaraws at the end of the first round and being left without veterans Matt and Mike Nieto due to injury, the Blue Eagles seemed to be in trouble. However, with Thirdy Ravena producing his best performance of the season and Tyler Tio stepping up big time for Ateneo, the Blue and White thumped the University of the Philippines (UP) Fighting Maroons, 83-66.

Facing their tormentors sans Arvin Tolentino in the second round with Ravena added to the inactive list due to a suspension, the Blue Eagles looked to big man Angelo Kouame to carry them. Posting an eye-popping double-double of 33 points and 27 rebounds, the first 30-20 game since former King Eagle Rabeh Al-Hussaini’s 33-point 20-rebound game in 2008, the 6’10” center pushed Ateneo past FEU, 82-62, to remain tied at first with a 7-2 record.

Ateneo-UP: 18-15, 35-29, 54-48, 83-66

Ateneo-FEU: 16-16, 34-22, 62-42, 82-62

Upcoming games:

October 24, Wednesday, 2:00 PM vs. University of the East (UE) Red Warriors at the Araneta Coliseum in Cubao, Quezon City

October 27, Saturday, 2:00 PM vs. National University (NU) Bulldogs at the Araneta Coliseum in Cubao, Quezon City

1. Increased inside presence

Photo by Joshua Tan

In a previous Weekly Takeaway piece, we mentioned the Blue Eagles’ heavy reliance on the three-point shot, citing it as a possible chink in the offensive arsenal of the defending champions especially on poor shooting days.

For the entirety of the first round, the Blue Eagles were second to the last in the UAAP for points in the paint (PIP) with only 29.4 points per game (PPG). It was not because of the inability to finish as Ateneo was fourth in two-point shot percentage (2PT%), shooting at a decent 45.7% clip. Rather it was the lack of attempts that limited output as Ateneo opted to rely on open threes manufactured by excellent ball movement to produce points.

However, the second round has been a different story so far. After averaging 52.5 attempts inside the arc—a significant improvement from their 40.3 attempts in the first round—the Blue Eagles outscored both UP (1st in PIP with 43.3 PPG) and FEU with an average of 42 PIP in the last two games

A big factor in this was the increased aggressiveness of Ravena and Kouame who attempted 19 and 17 inside shots, respectively. The former has used his exceptional athleticism to get those tough finishes inside while Kouame continues to be a hulking presence in the paint, especially on the offensive glass, using his length to score on putbacks while showing a variety of post moves in their game against the Tamaraws.

With the team’s uptick in production in the colored area, offensive efficiency has skyrocketed. After norms of 76.3 PPG on 38.3% shooting in the first round, the Blue Eagles averaged 82.5 PPG on a 44.7% shooting clip in the past two games.

While Ateneo looks for consistency in their three-point shooting, the Blue Eagles now have their inside production to rely on for offense. Once the outside snipers regain their mark, the Blue and White’s versatile offense will be an impenetrable force.

2. Tyler Tio steps up bigtime

Photo by Joshua Tan

Entering the match against the Fighting Maroons, all eyes were on former Xavier School standout Tyler Tio as he looked set to make his first UAAP start for the Blue and White.

In high school, Tio found himself playing a very different role in games; normally acting as the Golden Stallions’ primary scoring option with the main goal of putting up points on the board. However, with Matt Nieto sidelined with a finger injury, the second year floor general was now handed the keys to the Blue Eagles’ offense, where he would be trusted to facilitate the offense and tee up teammates for good looks at the basket.

Against Ateneo’s Katipunan rivals, Tio showcased his scoring abilities as he put up 12 points on 5/9 shooting from the field (56%). The 5’11” guard also dazzled the crowd with his playmaking—racking up 5 assists, highlighted by an alley-oop to Kouame late in the game.

In the following game against FEU, Tio again stepped up to the challenge with an output of eight points, three rebounds, and three assists in 25 minutes of play. The Tio-Kouame connection was again evident in the match as Tio capitalized on Prince Orizu’s absence by dishing out two lobs for the Ivorian big man late in the game.

An eye-opening revelation from the Blue Eagles’ past two games was the former Stallion’s incredible maturity as a ball handler and playmaker. Tio rarely found himself forcing a pass, or errantly trying to dribble into traffic, which rewarded the guard with zero turnovers through an average of 27.o8 minutes of action in both games.

In his lobs to Kouame, Tio also showed that he is not afraid to make the risky pass when necessary. With games against UE and NU to follow, it will be interesting to see if Tio can sustain his mature performances as of late in his increased role in the team’s rotation.

3. Increased reliance on the starters

After Ateneo Head Coach Tab Baldwin maximized the bench in the first round, with no member of the starting five averaging more than 25 minutes per game (MPG), he has suddenly shifted his approach, relying on his starters a lot more in the first two games of the second round with Ravena playing 34 minutes against UP and Kouame logging 33 minutes against FEU.

According to Assistant Coach Sandy Arespacochaga, these sudden surges in minutes for the starters were only in-game adjustments, but so far, it has been working wonders for the team after two blowout wins.

From averaging a per-game net rating of +10.46 for each player in the first seven games, the starting unit has nearly doubled it at a +19.2 average per player in the past two games. This means that whenever a member of the starting five was on the floor in the past two games, the Blue Eagles’ lead increased by almost 10 more points compared to the first round.

The first five have also kicked their scoring up a notch. The Blue Eagles’ first unit averaged 64 PPG against UP and FEU after averaging just 44.9 points in the first round.

Now that the starters have been gaining offensive rhythm with a dangerously deep bench to back them up, the Blue and White has become a more potent offensive powerhouse.

With five games left in the elimination round, we can only wait and see how the coaching staff plays it out. Do they stick with the starters for longer stretches to maximize their hot hands, or do they balance the minutes as in the first round to keep their best players fresh for the Final Four?

4. Looking ahead at the UE and NU games

Photo by Joshua Tan

Up next on the Blue Eagles’ schedule are the bottom two teams of the UAAP this season. UE and NU are the worst offensive teams in the league, with offensive ratings of 86.2 and 89.92, respectively, and the worst three-point shooting teams with 21.2% and 24.2% shooting clips, respectively.

Against UE, the key will be limiting the turnovers and defending in transition. UE is a young team who loves to run off a steal or a defensive rebound. They have the second fastest pace at 78.89, third in fastbreak points with 11.4 per game, and third in turnover points with 11.4 an outing.

They are also capable of forcing a handful of turnovers as they are tied for third in opponents’ turnovers with 16.3 per contest and fourth in steals with 5.0 a game. With that in mind, taking away these strengths will pay dividends in limiting their offensive production.

The Red Warriors are also scrappy with second chance points. Despite finishing dead last in offensive rebounding with only 13.5 per game, UE has the fourth-most second-chance buckets with 13.5 every outing led by Most Valuable Player (MVP) candidate Alvin Pasaol who corrals 5.0 offensive boards per game. By emphasizing on boxing out and limiting UE to single possessions, the Blue Eagles can easily contain the Red Warriors’ points production.

In the effort to subdue the Sampaloc-based squad, it’s important to remember that the King Warrior in Pasaol is the heart and soul of this UE squad. He is single-handedly carrying the treacherous UE offense, with norms of 23.5 PPG (1st in the UAAP) on 40.8% shooting which leaves him at 2nd in the MVP race after the first round.

His bread and butter is muscling his way into the paint using his wide body. He is also a high-motor player despite his size, jostling for good position and hustling for offensive rebounds to score on putbacks.

The key to stopping Pasaol is to keep him out of the paint and forcing him to shoot. He is a 20% three-point shooter, so the Blue Eagles must exploit that. If the Katipunan-based squad can limit Air Sambokojin to less than 20 points, the defending champs will inevitably get their eight win.   

As for NU, their lack of a consistent three-point threat forces their offense to rely on the colored area (2nd with 34.0 PIP per game). Similar to Ateneo (76.77), they play at a snail’s pace, sitting right above the Blue and White in terms of pace with an average of 77.43. However, their lack of a clear offensive system leads to errant and forced shots, with the Bulldogs relying heavily on rookie Dave Ildefonso to produce baskets.

However, when they do decide to run, the Bulldogs are a formidable force. They are second in fastbreak points with 14.3 per contest. They are also pretty accurate from the charity stripe although at a low volume, shooting 71.8% from the line (1st in the UAAP). So the key against NU will be limiting their transition chances and playing disciplined defense to prevent unnecessary fouls.

On other end of the floor, the Bulldogs don’t really possess the best interior defense. They are second to the last in PIP allowed with 34.0 points allowed per outing. However, what they do possess is a disciplined defensive unit as they give up the least free throws per game at 9.0.

The Blue Eagles will have to find ways to exploit their weak interior defense with their renewed confidence scoring in the paint while staying focused in finishing plays through contact. If the Blue and White can dominate the paint on both ends of the floor against the Sampaloc-based squad, a win won’t be hard to achieve.