In line with the ongoing University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Season 81 Men’s Basketball Tournament, this weekly series will analyze the state of the Ateneo Blue Eagles in their quest to successfully defend the crown.

Recap of the week (October 6 to October 10):

Riding a four-game winning streak heading into their first match against the De La Salle (DLSU) Green Archers, a confident Blue Eagle squad met little resistance from their archrivals. After an excellent showing from the bench in the second half, the Katipunan-based side earned their fifth win in a 71-55 drubbing of the De La Salle (DLSU) Green Archers, with the Archers only managing to register a paltry output of three team assists in the entirety of the match.

Continuing their impressive play in the first half against a familiar foe in the Far Eastern University (FEU) Tamaraws, the Blue and White looked poised to finish the first round with a bang. However, with Matt Nieto sidelined in the second half with an injured finger, the Blue Eagles were simply unable to hold their own. Producing a mere seven points in the third quarter to score their lowest scoring output in two years, the Tab Baldwin-mentored squad was shot down, succumbing to a comeback, 60-63.

Ateneo-DLSU: 12-13, 28-21, 50-33, 71-55

Ateneo-FEU: 19-11, 32-22, 39-39, 60-63

Upcoming games:

October 14, Sunday, 4:00 PM vs. University of the Philippines (UP) Fighting Maroons at the Mall of Asia (MOA) Arena, Pasay City

1. Lack of an elite shot creator: a bane or a boon for Ateneo?

Ateneo’s loss against the FEU Tamaraws followed the same tale as their defeat at the hands of the Adamson University (AdU) Soaring Falcons on the opening weekend. Both losses saw Ateneo lead by double digits in the first half, only to crumble down in the second half and consequently play catch up in the fourth quarter. Clearly, there is something happening in between the double-digit lead in the first half and the fourth quarter that has prevented the Blue Eagles from sweeping the first round, and it seems to be the lack of a consistent shot creator for the Blue and White.

Now Ateneo has never really needed an elite shot creator. Their system creates tons of open shots, employing a no-superstar mentality with great emphasis on ball movement that emulates the San Antonio Spurs. The system is efficient, overwhelming opposing defenses throughout a 40-minute game. Just look at Ateneo’s five wins so far, the Blue Eagles outclassed their opponents by an average winning margin of 21.8 points.

However, the problem arises when the shots stop falling. Against AdU, the Blue Eagles shot 28% from the field and 22% from deep. They had eight assists and just couldn’t convert the easy chances. Against FEU, Ateneo shot 29% from the field and 16% from rainbow country, and in the same way, routine attempts just weren’t falling.

As Coach Baldwin said in the post-game interview against FEU, “we had ample opportunities. We just didn’t hit shots.” So what happens then? What happens when the Blue Eagles produce opportunities with their excellent system but simply can’t convert?

For the longest time, the Spurs turned to Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. Can the Blue Eagles turn to their own version of a Big Three in Nieto, Thirdy Ravena, and Angelo Kouame?

Against the San Marcelino-based side, they turned to Nieto who exploded for 21 points, but it still wasn’t enough as Nieto was locked down in the last five minutes of the game. Against FEU, Kouame scored eight points in the payoff period in an attempt to salvage the game, but his offensive skill set is still very raw with no consistent faceup or back to the basket moves.

Maybe turning to Ravena is their best option. The versatile swingman can drive strong towards the basket for acrobatic finishes or attract the defense into the paint to open up his teammates as he has effectively done in several occasions such as a kick out to Isaac Go in the perimeter for the dagger three against DLSU in Season 80’s finals.

Foul trouble took Ravena out of the floor in the last three minutes against FEU, but in his only opportunity against AdU so far this season, he failed to show a consistent jumpshot that hindered him from effectively getting into the lane.

So the ultimate question for the Blue Eagles is, what happens when the shots stop falling? Who do they turn to as catalyst for a much-needed basket down the stretch? That is something the coaching staff will have to figure out heading into the second round.

2. Matt Nieto’s importance to the team

Shooting a measly 21% from three-point country while averaging only 6.9 points per game (PPG) so far in seven games, Nieto has yet to find his groove on offense. And aside from his 21-point explosion in the AdU contest in the season opener, the veteran point guard has only scored more than six points in one other game (against UP).

Despite his struggles, the Blue Eagles have continued to cruise smoothly, with Nieto’s +77 rating second only to Kouame in the +/- category. But just how important is Ateneo’s starting floor general?

Playing only in the first half against FEU after suffering a finger injury, the Ateneo offense crumbled in the second half. Without the presence of Nieto, the well-oiled machine of the Ateneo offense simply could not function properly, scoring a season-low output of seven points in the third quarter to allow the Tamaraws back in the game.

Despite struggling statistically, what makes Nieto such a crucial factor in bringing the win for Ateneo? The answer is leadership and patience.

The 5’10” former Ateneo Blue Eaglet has always been the stabilizer of the team, especially offensively. With SJ Belangel still finding his footing in the UAAP and Tyler Tio and Jolo Mendoza as scoring guards, Nieto is the only veteran floor general in the team. He is able to direct his teammates to their spots, allowing the system to run smoothly while also controlling the pace of the action. At the same time, he has good and patient reads that allow the system to produce open shots consistently, something sorely lacking whenever he is off the floor.

Consider this brilliant play from Nieto to Raffy Verano.

At the start of the sequence, Verano gives Nieto a quick slip and immediately pops out to the top of the key. Now this seems like a regular slip and pop play that Ateneo runs a couple of times every game. But look at how Nieto executes it to near perfection.

Without a direct lane to attack, and without space to shoot, the normal instinct for the ball handler would be to immediately give up the ball to Verano who has a better shot opportunity. This also keeps ball moving, something that is emphasized in Coach Tab Baldwin’s system. However, Nieto dribbles to the right as seen in the clip. It doesn’t look like he is aggressively attacking the lane, but he is simply filling up the wide open space at the right wing to open up the driving lane from the top of the key.

Once the play unfolds, we can see that Nieto notices Verano’s defender trying to close out his lane, and instead of immediately giving it up to the forward, he takes an extra second and a hesitation dribble. This is crucial because it suddenly forced Verano’s defender to decide whether to get back to his man or to continue clogging Nieto’s lane. As a result, Verano’s defender loses his footing, so when Nieto finally kicks it out, Verano has an extra step on his defender and is able to breeze through the open lane.

This play is just one example of the subtle reads Nieto spots in opposing defenses that creates a little bit more space for his teammates to score, highlighting how important the veteran playmaker is in running the Blue Eagles’ complex offensive system.

3. Kouame is a legitimate MVP candidate

After struggling immensely in his first two games in the UAAP, Kouame has finally made his presence felt in the past three games.

Considered a raw prospect entering his rookie season, the Ivorian center has exponentially evolved his game through the first seven games, showing flashes of brilliance and maturity well beyond his years.

Clumsy and nervous in his UAAP debut against AdU that resulted in a six-point, nine-rebound outing, Kouame has since bounced back with an 18.7-point 13.3 rebound average over the last three games.

Currently, Kouame finds himself at the helm of the Blue Eagles’ offense—

leading the team in scoring (12.0 PPG) with his knack of getting to the basket for layups, fighting hard for offensive rebounds and put-backs (leads the league with 6.6 offensive rebounds per contest), and numerous trips to the charity stripe.

However, what truly sets Kouame apart as a Most Valuable Player (MVP) candidate is his monster defensive prowess. He’s basically the Anthony Davis of the UAAP on defense, leading the league in blocks per game with an average of 3.9 swats per game (BPG), bringing his total block tally for the season to 27.

To further expound on the Ivorian’s impressive contributions on defense, Issa Gaye, who is currently second in terms of BPG (2.5), has only put up a tally of 15 in the first round of the season, a whole 12 blocks less than the rookie bigman.

Simply put, Kouame has completely changed the Ateneo defense from great to impenetrable. And it’s just not the shot-blocking. The lanky center is also an imposing glass cleaner, grabbing an average of 12.4 rebounds per game (RPG), second best in the league.

But aside from all of these, something underrated but truly valuable in Kouame’s skill set is his versatility on defense. Possessing long limbs and quick feet, the rookie can defend any guard out in the perimeter, whether by swatting away the jump shot attempt or snuffing out the lay-up effort in the paint; nothing gets through Kouame.

With the 6’10” center’s performances as of late being nothing short of impressive, it will be interesting to see how Kouame can sustain and improve further as the season progresses. And with the way he’s playing now, it won’t be surprising to see him bag his first UAAP MVP award.

4. Looking ahead at the Battle of Katipunan

One of the biggest surprises for UP this year, which has been a big part of their excellent offense, is their ball movement. UP’s head coach Bo Perasol has always been known as the isolation man, a strategy he often deployed using Kiefer Ravena during his tenure as the Blue Eagles’ coach. But that has changed this year.

UP is currently the best assist team in the league by a wide margin with 18.4 assists per game (APG), with Ateneo a far second at 15.0 APG. Additionally, four Fighting Maroons in Juan Gomez de Liano (2nd; 4.3 apg), Jun Manzo (4th; 4.1 apg), Bright Akhuetie (5th; 3.6 apg), and Paul Desiderio (10th; 2.9 apg) find themselves among the top ten assist leaders in the first round of UAAP action.

With that, their excellent ball movement has been working wonders for the Fighting Maroons so far as the team currently sits as the second highest scoring team in terms of average points per game (76.4 PPG). But despite the increase in assists, their passing efficiency was not compromised as they gave up the least turnovers in the league (13.9 turnovers per game).

The Fighting Maroons also have a strong inclination for banging it in the paint, as the team currently leads the league with an average of 43.7 points in the paint per game. They are also third in three point makes with 42 and second in three-point percentage at 29.8%.

As for notable individuals, MVP front-runner Akhuetie is having a monster season, finishing in the top ten in points, rebounds, and assists, with norms of 15.7 PPG (6th), 15.7 RPG (1st), and 3.6 APG (5th). Gomez de Liano is also a force to be reckoned with, posting averages of 17.9 PPG (2nd) and 4.3 APG (2nd).

With all these impressive offensive statistics, one would expect UP to at least be in the upper half of the standings, but instead they are currently tied at fifth because of their Achilles’ heel—defense.

The team is in the lower half in almost every defensive statistic; 6th in defensive rating, 6th in points allowed per game, 6th in field goal percentage allowed, 6th in steals, 7th in blocks, 7th in three-point shots allowed, 7th in fastbreak points permitted, and most free throw attempts conceded per game.

In their most recent game against the rebuilding University of Santo Tomas (UST) Growling Tigers, the Fighting Maroons allowed them to score their season-high 86 points on 41% shooting which resulted in an unexpected loss for UP.

Thus, for Ateneo to ensure a victory against their Katipunan rivals, the team must clog the passing lanes, contain Akhuetie and Juan Gomez de Liano’s offensive outputs by forcing them to take tough shots, and be aggressive in attacking the paint to draw fouls.

There is no doubt that UP is one of the best offensive teams in the league, especially with Akhuetie and Juan Gomez de Liano leading the way. In the second edition of the Battle of Katipunan, however, the Fighting Maroons’ offense will need to work twice as hard to get through the best defense in the league.

Another interesting element to the contest will be how UP’s lackluster defense will fare against the best offensive machine in the UAAP. With both teams’ offensive arsenal loaded to the brim, what may ultimately set the two apart will be their defensive displays.