In line with the ongoing University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Women’s Basketball tournament, this quarterly series will analyze the state of the Ateneo Lady Eagles as they look to get back into the Final Four.

Third Quarter Recap (October 18 to 28):

The Ateneo Lady Eagles started the second round with a record of one win against three losses. They were unable to break their losing skid during their second round opener against a strong University of the East (UE) Lady Warriors in a game reminiscent of their first round woes, where they led through the opening frame, but lacked consistency to finish strong. However, Ateneo’s six-game slump was finally broken after a win over archrivals De La Salle University (DLSU) Lady Archers, led by heroics from ace guard Jollina Go.

Two crucial defeats to the University of Santo Tomas (UST) Lady Tigresses and league-leading National University (NU) Lady Bulldogs then put Ateneo two games behind the fourth-seeded Far Eastern University (FEU) Lady Tamaraws, putting the Lady Eagles on a dangerous precipice at the season’s heated climax. Ateneo must now win all of their three remaining games to have a shot at a Final Four slot.

Upcoming Games:

Saturday, November 4, 11:00 AM vs. Adamson University (AdU) Lady Falcons at the Blue Eagle Gym in Quezon City

Wednesday, November 8, 8:00 AM vs. Far Eastern University (FEU) Lady Tamaraws at the Araneta Coliseum in Cubao, Quezon City

Saturday, November 11, 9:00 AM vs. University of the Philippines (UP) Lady Maroons at the Blue Eagle Gym in Quezon City

Quarterly Takeaways:

1. Reaching the Final Four is still in sight

After dropping three of their last four games, the Lady Eagles’ bid for a Final Four spot looks bleak. With FEU two games ahead, the cagers from Katipunan must finish with a perfect run to stay in contention for that lone playoff spot.

Possibility and positivity are key to making the most out of hope for a shot at the Final Four. A 1-3 record in the second round can be misleading, as three of those losses came at the hands of the top three teams in the league, the UE Lady Warriors, the UST Lady Tigresses, and the NU Lady Bulldogs.

The fact that the Lady Eagles had a chance to win two of those three games shows that Ateneo is definitely still in the ballgame. Against UE, the Lady Eagles even led by seven after the opening frame, only to be out-battled in the second half. Against the NU Lady Bulldogs, who have won 59 straight games, the Blue and White almost scored an upset, trailing by just two points with 1:16 remaining on the clock, only to lose gas in the final stretch.

The last three games are especially crucial because the Lady Eagles will be facing the fourth- and fifth-seeded FEU and AdU, as well as the bottom-seeded but dangerous UP Lady Maroons who are hungry for a win. In the first round, the Katipunan-based squad bested the Lady Falcons and the Lady Maroons, but fell to the Lady Tamaraws after leading by as much as twelve. The consistency of the team has vastly improved since then, and it is evident that the Lady Eagles can hold their own against the best teams in the league.

2. The possession game dictates the  outcome of the game

There is a saying in basketball that whoever wins the possession game wins the game. This has been very evident in the Lady Eagles’ last four games. In three of these four games, the outcome was decided by the number of possessions.

The game against UE saw an eight-turnover disparity between the two teams, which gifted the Lady Warriors with ten more field goal attempts. Ateneo’s outside shooting was the only sliver that kept the game close. Against DLSU, the ten offensive rebounding advantage allowed the Blue and White to earn six more looks at the basket, which resulted in the win.

Contrary to the statistics, the Lady Eagles actually have a problem with taking care of the ball. While they produce the least turnovers per game at 22.1, they also play the slowest pace in the league with only 78.57 possessions per game. This means that 28.13% of their possessions end up with a turnover. Their inability to break the press, along with rash decision-making and errant passes, has also affected their offensive rhythm. The result is a 32.5% field goal percentage, which is second to the last in the league.

However, the Lady Eagles have shown their ability to focus and play smart with the ball.  In each of the four games, Ateneo always managed to lessen their turnovers in the second half. Against UE, they had 18 first half turnovers, but had six in the second half. In the rubber match with DLSU, 14 first half turnovers were reduced to eight in the second half, which set the stage for a comeback.

If the Lady Eagles wish to book a spot in the Final Four, they must focus on taking care of the ball from start to finish and not just in the second half of their games.

3. Jollina Go needs to find her mark in the remaining games

Inconsistency has characterized Go’s shooting so far this year. In the first game of the season against Adamson, Go erupted with 19 points on 5/11 shooting from deep. Another first round game against UST saw her erupt for 26 points. However, Go has only hit double figures in five of Ateneo’s eleven games which showed a bit of her inconsistency throughout the games.

Ateneo’s dribble-drive offense relies on strong drives and kickouts, but has been stagnant at times when shooters are not hitting their mark. The first half against UE saw the Lady Eagles shoot 37.5% from downtown, allowing them to stay within two points in the half, but a 21.43% clip in the second half took away their threat from outside. Offense then became difficult for the Ateneo bigs, complicating the inside game for Tina Deacon, who had ten in the first half but was held scoreless in the latter half.

When Go gets it going, the Lady Eagles become a very dangerous team. As the team leader in three point makes with 19, the pressure is on her to convert shots from downtown, open up the floor for Deacon, and set up point guard Hazelle Yam to score inside.