In line with the ongoing University of Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Season 81 Men’s Basketball tournament, this weekly series will analyze the state of the Ateneo Blue Eagles in their quest to successfully defend the crown.

Recap of the week (September 29)

It was business as usual for the Ateneo Blue Eagles in the third week of UAAP action as they improved to solo second with a 4-1 record after winning their third straight blowout victory against a hapless University of Santo Tomas (UST) Growling Tigers squad, 85-53.

Upcoming games:

October 6, Saturday, 4:00 PM vs. De La Salle University (DLSU) Green Archers at the Mall of Asia (MOA) Arena, Pasay City

October 10, Wednesday, 4:00 PM vs. Far Eastern University (FEU) Tamaraws at the Mall of Asia (MOA) Arena

1. A clash between the league’s top two offenses

With key players from DLSU leaving the ship after Season 80, the Green Archers are not title favorites for the first time in two years. As a result, the first Ateneo-DLSU matchup of the season doesn’t quite produce the same clamor as last year’s meetings because it doesn’t feature the top two teams in the league, with the Green Archers currently tied for third, 3-2, in the tourney.

But make no mistake, this rivalry is still very much alive as Ateneo and DLSU possess the best and second best offenses, respectively, entering this game. In terms of average points per game (PPG), Ateneo and DLSU find themselves coming in first and second, with an output of 80.6 PPG and 76.6 PPG, respectively.

In their last match against the UST Growling Tigers, the Green Archers were lethal on the offensive end, scoring a league-high 99 points, with six players producing scoring outputs in double digits. DLSU was also lethal from beyond the arc, shooting 5/6 (83%) from deep in the first half alone, before eventually breaking the Season 81 record in terms of three-point efficiency with an 8/14 (57.14%) shooting clip from downtown.

While DLSU sits at fourth in terms of offensive rating with 96.77 point per 100 possession, the Blue and White boasts the top offensive rating in the UAAP with 103.99 points per 100 possessions.

In their best offensive showing of Season 81 against the National University (NU) Bulldogs, the Katipunan-based squad produced the fourth-best offensive output of the season, with thirteen Blue Eagles chipping in for a total score of 89 points. Ateneo’s 12 threes were the second-most so far this season as well while they clinched the third best field goal percentage with a 47.9% (34/71) clip.

Despite the unavailability of UAAP top assist man (5.3 APG) and Team Captain Kib Montalbo due to a fractured left thumb, the DLSU offense remains pretty loaded with the likes of Aljun Melecio, Justine Baltazar, Santi Santillan, Andrei Caracut, and Jollo Go ready to explode at any given time.

With this highly-anticipated clash between the league’s top two offensive teams, expect the matchup to be a high scoring game filled with exciting highlight-filled action.

2. Aljun Melecio and Justine Baltazar: the two pillars of the DLSU offense

Despite all the talent in their roster that propelled them to become the second best offensive team in the league, DLSU’s offense can only go as far as their dynamic scoring duo in Aljun Melecio and Justine Baltazar.

Through five games, Melecio and Baltazar have averaged 15.8 PPG and 15.2 PPG, 4th and 6th in the league, respectively. Between the two veterans, they have constituted 39% of DLSU’s total points output.

With that said, stopping the potent DLSU offense should start with containing the team’s offensive pillars. It is interesting to note that whenever the two stars struggle offensively, DLSU’s chances of winning significantly diminish.

In their two losses against the FEU Tamaraws and the University of the Philippines (UP) Fighting Maroons, Melecio and Baltazar both struggled immensely, averaging 11.5 PPG on 9/29 (31%) shooting and 10.5 PPG on 10/23 (43%) shooting, respectively.  

In contrast, in DLSU’s three wins against the NU Bulldogs, the University of the East (UE) Red Warriors, and the UST Growling Tigers, Melecio and Baltazar have overpowered their defenders. The 5’6” point guard had norms of 18 PPG on 19/41 (46%) shooting while the 6’7” center averaged 18.3 PPG on 17/40 (42.5%) shooting including a 20/25 (80%) clip at the free throw line.

It will be interesting to see what defensive tactics Coach Tab Baldwin will employ to contain DLSU’s dynamic duo. Ateneo’s plethora of capable perimeter defenders in Matt Nieto, defensive specialist Gian Mamuyac, Jolo Mendoza, and Adrian Wong will most likely be tasked to stop the diminutive De La Salle Zobel alumnus. As for Baltazar, Angelo Kouame and Isaac Go will have the honor of limiting the former NU Bullpup’s production.

So far, the Blue Eagles haven’t found much success containing their opponents’ offensive stars. Against the Soaring Falcons, Jerrick Ahanmisi scored 23 points and in the Battle of Katipunan, UP’s Juan Gomez de Liano put up a career-high 29 points. Ateneo allowed UE’s Alvin Pasaol to score 17 points and most recently, UST’s Renzo Subido to convert 19 points.

Disrupting Melecio and Baltazar’s rhythm will be key factors to containing their productions. For Melecio, it will be extremely helpful for the Blue Eagles to run him off the three-point line and force him to drive in the paint.

Despite shooting a stellar 50% clip from the two-point area in the past five games, Melecio’s lack of size will be a huge problem for him against the long arms of Kouame who leads the league in blocks with 3.6 per outing. By suffocating the space for Melecio to operate in his comfort zone in the perimeter, the Blue Eagles can take away his potent outside shooting (5th in the league with 2.2 3PT made per game), making life easier on the defensive end.

On Baltazar’s end, his adept footwork, soft touch, and nose for offensive boards, makes him a threat on both ends of the court. Baltazar currently leads the league for most free throws made with 21 or 4.2 free throws per contest and has the third most offensive rebounds in the league with 5.4 per game that undoubtedly leads to a lot of easy put-backs and second chance buckets. Putting extra effort in boxing him out and playing disciplined defense without fouling will go a long way in stopping the third year center.

Stopping Melecio and Baltazar will not be easy tasks, but  Coach Tab Baldwin’s boys are up for the challenge. By containing DLSU’s dynamic duo, Ateneo will exponentially increase their chances of notching win number five.

3. Battle of the boards and controlling the tempo remain to be key stats for this matchup

As clichè as it is, crashing the boards and controlling the tempo are two major keys for Saturday’s match.

Both teams lead the league in the rebounding department, with DLSU’s 49.6 boards per game topping the league and Ateneo’s 47.6 boards per game following closely behind at second. An interesting fact to note this season is that both squads have so far won every game where they dominated the battle of the boards. Meanwhile, both teams have lost every game in which they fell behind in the rebounding category.

Aside from being excellent in limiting their opponents to single possessions as league leaders in defensive rebounding (31.0 per game), the Green Archers are the best scrappers in the league. They have the second most offensive rebounds in the UAAP at 18.6 per contest. This has led to a league-topping 18.2 second-chance buckets per match. At the forefront of this rebounding excellence are DLSU big men Justine Baltazar, 4th in the league, and Santi Santillan, 8th in the league, with 11.0 RPG and 8.6 RPG, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Blue Eagles are not far behind, boasting the second best defensive rebounding unit in the league (30.0 per game), the third most offensive rebounds (17.6 per game), and the second most points off second chances (17.0 per game). UAAP’s second top rebounder, Kouame, (12.4 RPG) will be the main man to contain Baltazar’s outstanding rebounding prowess while Raffy Verano (4.8 RPG) and William Navarro (4.2 RPG) will take turns holding off Santillan.

Limiting the opponents’ possessions on defense by going hard for every missed shot and generating extra possessions for the offense by finding good positions will be invaluable for Ateneo to claim the victory as every possession will be crucial in deciding the outcome of the game.

Despite similarly excelling in the rebounding department, there is a huge difference between the pace that Ateneo and DLSU excels in.

Preferring to run down the shot clock while executing complex offensive sets to find the best possible shot bodes well for the Blue Eagles who are at their while playing at a slower pace.

Over the past five games, Ateneo placed 5th in pace factor with 77.50 possessions per outing. However, in their three blowout wins against NU, UE, and UST, the Blue and White played at a snail’s pace with a pace of 73.66 possessions per game, showing how potent their offense can be when they take the time to run their sets.

In contrast, the Green Archers are quite effective in pushing the pace to score quickly, ranked 3rd in fastbreak points with 9.8 per game and averaging 79.15 possessions per ball game as the league’s second quickest offense.

This was clearly evident in their statement win against UST where the Green and White played at a frenetic pace of 81.51 possessions and winning by a margin of 27 points. But in their meeting against the FEU Tamaraws, DLSU played at a grind it out pace of 73.68, resulting to a 7-point loss during the opening weekend.

Controlling the tempo and forcing DLSU to leave their comfort zone by playing at a slower pace will be a huge edge for the Katipunan-based squad, and it will be up to the Blue Eagle point guards, Matt Nieto, Jolo Mendoza, SJ Belangel, and Tyler Tio, to accomplish this.