After two months of play in the University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Season 80 Men’s Basketball tournament, the Ateneo Blue Eagles and the De La Salle Green Archers have booked their spots in the UAAP Finals. This piece is a comprehensive breakdown in preparation for the upcoming best-of-three Finals series.
The Tale of the Tape
The Road to the Finals
Ateneo Blue Eagles
The Ateneo Blue Eagles dominated the Elimination Round, winning their first 13 games and falling just short of a sweep. What is most impressive about Ateneo’s run is that they were destroying the competition, having won 12 of 13 games by double-digits.
But championship quests are never meant to be easy, and that is the realization the Blue Eagles received over the past week. After taking their first loss in a heartbreaker to La Salle, the twice-to-beat Blue Eagles were thoroughly outplayed by a fourth-seeded FEU squad in their first Final Four game. In their second game, they needed some heroics from Isaac Go and the season’s first overtime game to save their season and advance to the Finals.
De La Salle Green Archers
After losing to Ateneo and the University of the Philippines through their opening seven games, La Salle righted their ship. They went undefeated in the Second Round, in large part due to the dominant presence of two-time UAAP Most Valuable Player (MVP) Ben Mbala and fellow Mythical Five member Ricci Rivero.
They ended the elimination with a statement victory over Ateneo, and advanced to the UAAP Finals after a come-from-behind win over the Adamson Falcons in the first game of the Final Four.
Keys to Victory
1. Ateneo must stay focused in clutch situations
Colin: In last Wednesday’s do-or-die game against the Tamaraws, a bevy of Blue Eagles made their mark in crunch time. Thirdy Ravena fueled Ateneo’s comeback from eight points down in the fourth, hitting timely baskets in both regulation and overtime; Rookie Gian Mamuyac showed poise on both ends of the floor, highlighted by a huge block in overtime on Ron Dennison; Matt Nieto’s personal 5-0 run in overtime proved to be the deciding factor in the game; Isaac Go made the game-tying triple to force OT and scored the game-sealing basket while on the floor during the extra frame. It was an emotional win for the Blue Eagles, who saved their season by pulling off a miraculous comeback in the fourth quarter.
“Focus really helped us. [With the] emotions of this game, the highs and lows, our focus really helped us with this win,” Ateneo Assistant Coach Sandy Arespacochaga said after the game.
The Blue Eagles need to bring this focus and composure into the Finals. Despite Ateneo’s stellar clutch performance against the Tamaraws, their late-game play has been underwhelming this season. In particular, they have struggled mightily on the offensive end late in the fourth quarters of their two Elimination Round games against La Salle.
Ateneo came away victorious in the two rivals’ Round One meeting on October 8, despite their shortage of scoring in the fourth quarter. As a matter of fact, the Blue Eagles scored just five points in the final 5:17, failing to convert on a field goal in that span. A month later, the two teams faced off again in a game that saw La Salle come back from down 12 in the fourth quarter to break Ateneo’s undefeated record.
In their Round Two contest, after a basket by Vince Tolentino put the Blue Eagles up by seven with 2:24 left, it was La Salle’s patented Mayhem defense that catapulted them ahead. The Green Archers forced three consecutive Ateneo turnovers, and converted successive opportunity on the other end, finishing the game on a 10-0 run.
La Salle’s length and athleticism is what makes them so deadly on the defensive end. Mbala and Ri. Rivero may get majority of the limelight for the Green Archers (and deservedly so), but it is players like Kib Montalbo and Abu Tratter who feature largely in the DLSU’s stifling defense. The Archers use Montalbo to frustrate the opposing team’s best wing scorer, which he infamously did against Adamson’s Jerrick Ahanmisi in their sole Final Four meeting. On the other hand, Tratter has been a pest in pick-and-roll situations, often hedging or trapping to either disrupt the offense or force opposing ball handlers into crucial turnovers.
If Ateneo is going to counter La Salle’s pesky defense, it is going to take the collective focus, discipline, and effort that the Blue Eagles have displayed this season. While they may have played an incredible Elimination Round, their slugfest with the Tamaraws proved that the postseason is a different ball game altogether. However, we have seen the Blue Eagles stand on top of the mountain all season long, and they have proven to have the tools to bring home the crown. This next week will determine whether they have the character.
2. Tab Baldwin has to continue to utilize different frontcourt combinations
Kirby: Part of Coach Tab Baldwin’s basketball genius is the way he exploits individual matchups along with his usage of varying lineups depending on the opponent. Down the stretch against FEU, the Blue Eagles played five-man units that had been rarely utilized during the Elimination Round. This had a substantial effect on the outcome.
One of the lineups featured Chibueze Ikeh and Isaac Go on the floor at the same time. The Ikeh-Go frontcourt duo stood out not only because of its size (the two are listed at 6’9” and 6’7”, respectively), but because of its surprising effectiveness against FEU. On paper, the mammoth tandem plays directly to the hands of quicker teams like FEU. They both are plodding, traditional centers that lack the off-the-bounce juice and passing craft to be effective in Baldwin’s fluid offensive system for long stretches.
Instead, the Blue Eagles outscored the Tamaraws by six points when they played together during Wednesday’s game. Their combined size mitigated the speed advantage of FEU’s frontcourt. This was evident in the final minute of the first quarter when the Tamaraws had trouble containing the two on the offensive glass; the threat of Ikeh’s potent offensive rebounding allowed Go to roam freely in the paint, securing crucial second-chance points.
In half-court situations, Go’s stellar shooting from deep—his 34.6% clip from deep during the Elimination Round was 4.8% higher than the league average—was the catalyst for the tandem’s success. The Xavier School product provides just enough spacing for the Blue Eagles to operate without cramping up the paint.
The mere threat of Go’s three-point shot helped Ateneo pull away during overtime. FEU utilizes a conservative pick-and-roll defense. Head Coach Olsen Racela usually has his big men drop down a couple of inches in front of the ball-handler after the screen, giving time for the screened player to recover back to his man. This tactic is effective against shaky shooters, but the combined shooting prowess of Go and Matt Nieto nullified this scheme.
Matt Nieto is CLUTCH. Ateneo up, 85-80 with 46.9 left! #UAAPSeason80 pic.twitter.com/VN6xyhddZE
— ABS-CBN Sports (@abscbnsports) November 22, 2017
Late into overtime, FEU instead had Axel Inigo (Ma. Nieto’s man) stick to Go to prevent a pick-and-pop triple, which forced the slower Arvin Tolentino to switch onto Ma. Nieto. The dynamic guard feasted on the mismatch (a favorite tactic of Baldwin) in back-to-back possessions, blowing past Tolentino in the first and draining a three on him in the next. Ikeh was in prime position to grab the offensive board over the smaller Richard Escoto in both instances had Matt Nieto missed.
Baldwin also tinkered with Mike Nieto as the power forward, something he rarely did during the Elimination Round. Though he lacks size and heft, the former UAAP Juniors MVP has the skills to play as a big, along with the shooting touch to boot.
Baldwin deployed Mi. Nieto as the team’s second big for a huge portion of the final period, and Mi. Nieto repaid his coach’s trust with a team-high +9 plus-minus during the quarter. His presence gave Ravena space to operate inside, and he even hit the crucial triple that tied the game 69-all with under four minutes left.
It will be interesting to see if Baldwin will utilize either of these small and supersized combinations against La Salle. With both Vince Tolentino (12.5%) and Raffy Verano (23.1%), the team’s nominal power forwards, having subpar seasons from beyond the arc, the Blue Eagles can unlock more shooting by playing with different frontcourt combination. With the three-point shot being a key factor in Ateneo’s title aspirations, it is very much possible that Go and Mi. Nieto will play major minutes at their not-so-typical positions.
Matchup to Watch
Thirdy Ravena vs Ricci Rivero
Colin: The UAAP careers of Thirdy Ravena and Ricci Rivero have been eerily similar. The two starting small forwards entered the league with high expectations, but spent most of their rookie seasons trying to carve out a niche on their team with the help of their respective older brothers. In their second year, they both returned to the UAAP as bonafide star players, notching the fifth and final Mythical Five spot in the process (Season 79 for Thirdy and Season 80 for Ricci). Their leaps to stardom came at the perfect time for their teams, as they replaced superstar talents who led their schools to multiple championships (Kiefer Ravena for Ateneo and Jeron Teng for La Salle).
In terms of playing styles, both are also known for their next-level athleticism and supreme length, as both Ravena and Rivero have graced the league with their fare share of highlight plays. They are both demons on the fastbreak, but have used superior footwork to maneuver and score efficiently in half-court offensive sets.
Ravena is the closest thing the team-oriented Blue Eagles have to a superstar. In the Elimination Round, he placed fifth in the league in scoring (14.4), led all forwards in rebounding (8.4), and was seventh in the league in assists (3.3). On the other side, Ri. Rivero has cemented himself as the second best player on the Green Archers behind Mbala. The second year swingman is easily one of the most improved players of this season, ranking seventh in scoring (14.1) and second in steals (1.7), while also grabbing a good number of rebounds for his position (5.4).
As for expectations, both are expected to grow up quickly in the biggest stage. Ravena already played a crucial role in Ateneo’s runner-up campaign last season, but the expectations that lay on his broad shoulders have been drastically raised this year because of his team’s dominance. Meanwhile, the younger Rivero brother carries the weight of having to try to replicate the production of last year’s Finals MVP in Jeron Teng.
With all the similarities that exist between these two charismatic young studs, a head-to-head clash in the UAAP Finals seems only fitting. This matchup could surely be the defining one in a series filled with crucial positional battles.
Ben Mbala vs the Ateneo big men
Kirby: When asked about the first thing that came to mind about their impending match against DLSU, Assistant Coach Sandy Arespacochaga was unequivocal with his response.
“Mbala,” he admitted with a smirk. “That’s the first name [that comes to mind].”
His answer is not surprising. The Green Archers have a number of good, quality players on the roster, but at the end of the day, DLSU’s championship hopes hinge on the Cameroonian center. Mbala is the best player in the UAAP—by a wide margin. His incredible skill, athleticism, and power can single-handedly tilt the balance of any contest.
Stopping Mbala is incredibly difficult based on his current form. The most the Blue Eagles can do is contain his productivity.
The team did a good job of limiting his efficiency in their first matchup. He “only” scored 18 points on 44% shooting despite Ikeh being limited with foul trouble. Ateneo sagged off Mbala when he had the ball in the perimeter, daring him to shoot threes. When Mbala attacked the rim, the Blue Eagles packed the paint, forcing him to take contested shots (which he converted occasionally) and coaxed him to kick the ball out to shooters outside. Mbala ended the match with zero assists, five turnovers, and a 0/3 clip from deep.
In the second contest, both Go and Tolentino joined in on Ikeh’s foul trouble. This led to multiple big men matching up with Mbala during the match; even Porter and Verano had their go on the La Salle big.
Predictably, Porter and Verano fell short against Mbala. The Ateneo bigs tried to front him in the post, but his height and leaping ability proved to be too much. Mbala bulldozed through the paint with ease en route to 28 points and 19 rebounds.
Ikeh needs to stay in the floor for the Blue Eagles to have a chance in diminishing Mbala’s productivity. Ateneo’s starting center is perhaps Mbala’s most formidable matchup. The two bigs sport similar builds, and Ikeh has the strength to challenge Mbala on the offensive glass.
Forcing Mbala to be a distributor will also be key, as he had a -2.7 Assist to Turnover ratio during the Elimination Round. The Blue Eagles can throw double, even triple teams at him in the paint, and force the other Green Archer to make their jumpers.
This remains a risky strategy as DLSU ranks third in the UAAP in 3PT percentage at 31%, making it possible for La Salle to sink Ateneo with open jumpers. It all comes down to letting either Mbala or his teammates carry the offensive load. But when facing the player who is arguably the most physically dominant the UAAP has seen, the answer is clear.
The X-Factors
Isaac Go
Kirby: The fact that Isaac Go is drawing comparison to the likes of other big-game Ateneo legends such as Enrico Villanueva and Doug Kramer is stunning, especially since it his only his third year in the UAAP. His two iconic shots in Game 2 against FEU—the backbreaking triple that sent the game into an overtime period and the putback bucket whilst being pulled down to the ground—will be etched in the memory of Ateneo fans for years to come.
It was the second straight season that Go eliminated FEU with a clutch performance. After his breakout season last year when he averaged 10.3 points and 7.3 in the final half of the season, Go had a rather muted Season 80. Ikeh’s emergence made Go the primary back-up center. However, Go made the most of his minutes with averages of 6.9 points (the highest among the Blue Eagle bench players), along with 5.5 rebounds per game.
Despite his solid but unspectacular Elimination Round, Go has come up big in major matches much like last year. He has picked up the scoring load for the Blue Eagles lately averaging 11.7 points per games in the last three matches. His soft touch and newfound shooting from deep, evidenced by his 13 made threes on a 36.1% shooting clip from deep so far, has kept the Blue Eagles afloat in crucial junctures of matches.
Ateneo is going to need all the offensive production they can get from Go. He has also held his own on the defensive end. He was matched up with the quicker Arvin Tolentino in large portions of the Final Four, and was crucial in limiting the offensive-minded forward. Go made up for his lack of speed with defensive smarts and wingspan. He used his size to his advantage; Tolentino could not bulldoze his way to the rim from the high-post due to Go’s hefty frame, which left Tolentino gassed towards the dying moments of Wednesday’s match.
Go will need to bring the same defensive intensity against La Salle, especially against the Mbala and Santi Santillian frontline—arguably the toughest in the UAAP. Go has shown his penchant for coming up big in major games. If he can deliver like he did against FEU, it will significantly increase the Blue Eagles’ championship aspirations.
Anton Asistio
Colin: The Ateneo Blue Eagles have trotted out the same starting line-up since Game 1 of the season, with sharpshooter Anton Asistio occupying the off-guard spot. While his size is often a point of criticism, Asistio’s fearlessness and ability to stretch the floor are both crucial to the Blue Eagles’ offensive attack.
However, the veteran shooting guard has struggled mightily as of late, shooting just 3 of 19 from the field, and 1 of 10 from beyond the arc over the team’s last four games. His struggles came around full circle in the last game against FEU. Asistio played just eight minutes and was the only Blue Eagle who played that failed to register a point.
If the Blue Eagles are going to pull out two wins in a three-game series over La Salle, they need to click on all cylinders, and that definitely includes Asistio. The Green Archers tend to force outside shots with the pressure they apply, and the 5’10” guard could be the antidote to keeping La Salle’s defense in check.
One thing Asistio has going for him is that he has got the trust of the coaching staff. Baldwin likes to go with offense-defense substitutions late in close games, and Asistio is a staple in his offense-first line-up. While he did miss a couple of late baskets against La Salle in Ateneo’s second round loss, he has always been known as a gunner and will never shy away from taking the big shot.
Being the pure shooter that he is, Asistio must remain confident in every shot that leaves his hands amidst these struggles. For Asistio, who once dropped 45 points in a championship game for Team Glory Be, perhaps the bright lights of the UAAP Finals will be just the right stage for a proper reincarnation.
Probabilities
Colin: Ateneo’s performance against FEU left a lot to be desired from the number one seeded team, but they may have just gained a much-needed confidence boost with the way they picked up that win. La Salle’s win over Adamson may not have been convincing, but they have a week’s break compared to just a couple of days for Ateneo. They also have Ben Mbala. This one’s too tough to call, but I think the team who wins the first game is likely going to win this series in Game Two.
Kirby: The glaring issue with Ateneo’s Final Four performance was their shaky defense. Their rim protection, or lack thereof, was very concerning; guys like Hubert Cani and Jasper Parker got to the rim way to easily. The Blue Eagles may face an uphill battle against La Salle if they continue to play lethargic defense.
If the team can revert back to the stifling defense that they displayed all season long, it is going to be a tough series. In my opinion, the series is going to three games. If Ben Mbala continues to dominate like he did in the second-round matchup, La Salle will be back-to-back champions. If Ateneo can find their defensive rhythm and scorch hot from beyond the arc, the championship may return to the Loyola Heights.
Finals Schedule:
Game 1 – November 25, Saturday, 4:00 PM at the Mall of Asia Arena
Game 2 – November 29, Wednesday, 4:00 PM at the Araneta Coliseum
Game 3 – (If Necessary) December 3, 4:00 PM at the Araneta Coliseum
